Destiny

I (also) opened 1000 Solstice Packages. Results and stats within!

Content of the article: "I (also) opened 1000 Solstice Packages. Results and stats within!"


Overview

First off, kudos to u/TheAnduric who completed his grind much quicker than I did. He said he was doing 10-12 hours/day and mine was closer to 6 hours/day average. His results are here.

Each individual drop was entered into a spreadsheet. Data and stats were compiled from there.

This grind was done for science and for high stat armor rolls. All of the other items that drop are just minor bonuses and there are much faster ways to grind for cores, prisms, modules, etc.

NOTE: I had started a 1000 armor focused umbral study on Jun 20th. This additional study came as a result of that. The extra umbral drops from solstice packages and from the nightmare hunt grind actually helped to speed that up.

It is complete and those results will be in a separate post.


Drop Rate

For items that dropped different amounts I've only given the drop RATE , not the total amounts. Shards were 3 at least, mats dropped either 10 or 25. Cores dropped 1, 3 or 5. Total glimmer was 489000.

Item Count Rate %
Legendary Shard 80 8.0
Planetary Materials 216 21.6
Enhancement Core 130 13.0
Umbral Engram 154 15.4
Upgrade Module 27 27.0
Enhancement Prism 12 1.2
Blue Gear 891 89.1
Legendary Gear 228 22.8
Solstice Gear 338 33.8

Most Solstice gear drops in a group of 50: 21

Least Solstice gear drops in a group of 50: 12

Longest streak of Solstice gear drops: 5-once, 4-7 times

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Longest streak of no Solstice gear drop: 11-twice, 10-4 times


Stats about armor slot and and stat distributions

Slot distribution:

Slot Count Rate %
Head 59 17.5
Arms 55 16.3
Chest 74 21.9
Legs 77 22.8
Class 73 21.5
Total 338 100

The rest of the stats are based on the 265 non class item stat rolls.

Total stat roll distribution:

Total Count % % Total or higher
54 1 .38 100
55 1 .38 99.6
56 2 .75 99.2
57 16 6.0 98.5
58 28 10.6 92.4
59 33 12.5 81.9
60 35 13.2 69.4
61 46 17.4 56.2
62 43 16.2 38.9
63 29 10.9 22.6
64 20 7.5 11.7
65 8 3 4.2
66 1 .38 1.1
67 2 .75 .8
Total 265 100

The last column can be used to determine the chance off getting that total or higher. For example: 69.4% of the rolls were at least 60 stat total.

Number of individual stats with a 2, the minimum for a single stat:

Number of 2 stat Count Rate %
85 32.1
1 127 47.9
2 50 18.9
3 2 .75
4 1 .38
265

Averages for individual stats:

Stat Average
Mob 10.41
Res 10.26
Rec 9.78
Dis 9.99
Int 9.91
Str 10.41

Number of times a stat showed as the highest in it's group (ties separate):

Stat Count Rate %
Mob 85 32.1
Res 84 31.7
Rec 81 30.6
Top 3 tie 15 5.7
Dis 82 30.9
Int 79 29.8
Str 93 35.1
Bot 3 tie 11 4.2

Number of times a stat was 20 or greater:

Stat Count Rate %
Mob 17 6.42
Res 16 6.04
Rec 17 6.42
Dis 16 6.04
Int 15 5.66
Str 18 6.79
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Summary and miscellaneous musings

A solstice package has about a 1/3 chance of dropping a piece of solstice gear which is distributed fairly evenly among the 5 slots. This yields an overall chance of about 27% to get a "high stat" rolled armor piece. That piece has a about a 70% chance of rolling a 60 or higher!

Overall, the RNG on slot and stat distribution falls in line with expectations. Mine had a slight strength bias but it's not out of line for the 265 sample size. My umbral armor results yielded a sample size of 787 and showed a more even distribution.

I know confirmation bias exists and some of the additional analysis was done to alleviate that. For example those feelings you get like "its mostly res/str as the highest" or "it's 50% class items". Some of these things can happen over the short term. At the start, I was at a 43% class item rate! I did the packages in groups of 50 and may post distributions for each group to see if there's any validation to the feel that there is an abnormal amount of RNG "streaking".

Overall, I felt that Solstice and the package drops were a good source to grind for high stat armor, especially for a solo player. My most notable roll was a 27 Rec/29 Dis leg piece!

Source: reddit.com

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