A Probability Guide to Cubing Mid-High Runes from The Countess!

I'm not sure if someone else has done the math yet, but I calculated the probabilities and amounts of runes you get from the Countess (Hell), and added them together to find out exactly how many Countess runs you would have to do in order to cube up specific mid- to high runes. I calculated the runes as fractions of a BER rune (since we're cubing up the runes here, and I was originally interested in how many Countess runs you'd have to do to get a Ber). Note that I included only runes from Pul to Lo, since runes below Pul require 3 runes to combine up, and the Countess only drops up to Lo. Here's the math:

Rune | Drop chance | Fraction of BER

Lo | 1:49998 | 128/512

Ohm | 1:33332 | 64/512

Vex | 1:35137 | 32/512

Gul | 1:23425 | 16/512

Ist | 1:519 | 8/512

Mal | 1:346 | 4/512

Um | 1:353 | 2/512

Pul | 1:235 | 1/512

Now, assume we did 50 000 runs at the Hell Countess. We can calculate the amount of Ber runes we would get from combining all the dropped runes, by dividing the 50 000 runs by the drop chance, and multiplying that number by the "fractions of BER". So for example for Ohm runes, this would be (50000/33332)*(64/512) = 96/512.

Calculating all of these together, we get the number 2145/512, or 4.19 as a decimal number. Meaning, we would get (ON AVERAGE) 4.19 BER runes from 50k Hell Countess runs, if we cubed up all the dropped runes. This can be further simplified to 1 Ber rune in almost exactly 12k runs.

Now, as you can see, running Countess is not really a viable method to get really high runes (Ber, Jah, etc.). But for mid-high runes, such as Lo, Ohm and Vex, it is actually quite viable. If you want to calculate how many Countess runs you'd have to do to get a single Sur rune, divide the Ber rune calculation by 2, which equates to 6k runs. Similarly, a single Lo rune would take 3k runs. Ohm would be 1500 runs, Vex 750 runs, etc etc.

So if you want to do some higher tier runewords such as Exile, CtA, Chaos, HoTo, maybe even Grief, the Hell Countess can be a viable alternative to other methods such as LK running. I still believe LK running is way faster for getting the really high HRs (Ber, Jah etc.), but it can be hard to do especially in multiplayer where you can't make new games constantly.

Final note: this calculation does not take into account any of the lower rune drops (below Pul) nor possible drops from other mobs or chests in the tower. You might get to your desired HRs faster than this calculation predicts, or it might take you 5k runs to get a single Vex (it is luck based after all). You will also get a lot of gems, jewels, rares, and a possibility of uniques and set items by running the Countess, as opposed to LK running, where you can not get uniques or set items from the chests.

Happy hunting!

TLDR; If you combine the rune drops from Hell Countess in the cube, you can get 1 Ber rune in 12k runs, or 1 Sur in 6k runs, or 1 Lo in 3k runs, etc etc.

Edit: Seems like I don't understand how tables work in reddit lol, hope it's still readable.


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