Dota 2

Group Stage Tiebreaker Probabilities [Spoilers for group stage days 1-3]

Heading into the final day of the group stages, below are each team's probabilities of placement and the probabilities of seeing bonus DotA to resolve ties (match outcome probabilities taken from a snapshot of the betting odds).

In Group A, there will be no elimination tiebreaker as Thunder Predator is unable to place higher than 9th. For the upper bracket tiebreaker, there is a >50% chance of any sort of tiebreaker with the most interesting remaining outcome being a 5-way tie for 2nd with 9 wins, which can only happen if

  • IG 2:0 over OG
  • EG 1:1 split with Undying
  • Team Aster 2:0 over VP
  • T1 1:1 split with Thunder Predator

In Group B, there are still a number of ways a 4-way tiebreaker for either 2nd or 3rd place could occur but with low likelihood. And there remains reasonable chances for a 3-way or 2-way tiebreaker for both upper bracket and elimination.


Group A

Match outcomes

Game2 : 00 : 21 : 1
Invictus Gaming : OG28.09%34.03%37.89%
Evil Geniuses : Team Undying52.09%13.39%34.52%
Virtus.pro : Team Aster47.37%18.67%33.96%
T1 : Thunder Predator58.23%9.96%31.80%

Team placements

TeamUpper BracketUpper Bracket TiebreakerLower BracketElimination TiebreakerEliminated
Invictus Gaming100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
OG62.00%29.29%8.71%0.00%0.00%
Virtus.pro73.23%21.65%5.12%0.00%0.00%
Evil Geniuses34.35%40.51%25.15%0.00%0.00%
Team Undying8.83%27.33%63.84%0.00%0.00%
T135.93%41.92%22.14%0.00%0.00%
Team Aster0.00%0.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%
Alliance0.00%0.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%
Thunder Predator0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%

Tiebreaker Probabilities

Upper Bracket Tiebreakers

  • 2-way tie for 4th – 17.71%
  • 3-way tie for 3rd – 13.59%
  • 3-way tie for 4th – 13.71%
  • 4-way tie for 2nd – 5.09%
  • 4-way tie for 3rd – 5.04%
  • 5-way tie for 2nd – 0.58%

Group B

Match outcomes

Game2 : 00 : 21 : 1
PSG.LGD : Elephant47.37%18.67%33.96%
Quincy Crew : SG esports46.20%14.63%39.17%
Team Spirit : beastcoast41.58%20.51%37.91%
Secret : Fnatic50.80%13.94%35.26%
Secret : Vici Gaming30.95%26.82%42.23%
PSG.LGD : beastcoast57.71%13.70%28.58%
Elephant : Quincy Crew37.31%21.65%41.04%
Team Spirit : SG esports50.08%14.29%35.63%

Team placements

TeamUpper BracketUpper Bracket TiebreakerLower BracketElimination TiebreakerEliminated
PSG.LGD100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Vici Gaming99.25%0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Secret91.06%7.36%1.58%0.00%0.00%
beastcoast28.00%20.33%51.67%0.00%0.00%
Elephant8.81%19.40%71.78%0.00%0.00%
Team Spirit38.70%22.01%39.29%0.00%0.00%
Fnatic0.00%0.00%88.38%11.00%0.62%
Quincy Crew0.00%0.00%59.68%19.66%20.66%
SG esports0.00%0.00%23.25%21.33%55.42%

Tiebreaker Probabilities

Upper Bracket Tiebreakers

  • 2-way tie for 4th – 20.55%
  • 3-way tie for 3rd – 3.64%
  • 3-way tie for 4th – 5.34%
  • 4-way tie for 2nd – 0.10%
  • 4-way tie for 3rd – 0.36%

Elimination Tiebreakers

  • 2-way tie for 8th – 17.91%
  • 3-way tie for 7th – 5.39%

Source

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