Dota 2

TI10 Fantasy Day 4 Predictions

Day 1: https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/q2jxyh/ti10_fantasy_guide_day_1_predictions/

Day 2: https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/q3gjq5/ti10_fantasy_day_2_predictions/

Day 3: https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/q43wdr/ti10_fantasy_day_3_predictions/

Day 3 overview

Recycle all your TP cards, they're eliminated.

Fnatic Day 2 and T1 Day 3 have both proved that SEA teams are God-tier when it comes to fantasy. 4 games in, whitemon was already clear first for supports and Karl for mids, even tho other teams had finished 6 games. Bryle did well as usual but Karl was an absolute beast today, beating Bryle by 20 points, while Whitemon beat the next best player Dubu by 40 points. Even 23savage topped the carries, beating the next best rtz by 11 points.

EG have always been historically bad at fantasy and despite their early signs of life on day 1, day 3 was no different. While Arteezy did make it into the top 2, Fly is 60 points behind the leader whitemon and 20 points behind dubu and Abed is 30 points behind Bryle, 50 behind the leader Karl. Timado was looking decent and then the final series vs T1 went badly and he ended up lower than Arteezy/Monet/Kuku but barely above Nikobaby. One thing to note is that despite only having 2 series(4 games), Yatoro is the third best carry barely ahead of Monet and Raven is 7th, barely behind Timado. However Yatoro's success is due to his team going 4-0 and his average isn't usually that high so it might not be reliable to bet on him just yet. Raven performed well as expected, if only he had another series he would be clear first.

LoA is also 5th on supports despite only 4 games so might be a stable option for tomorrow. Kaka is 6th and definitely a must play card in the upcoming playoffs. The only other notable supports that weren't whitemon and dubu were Fng and Lanm.

My prediction on mid ended up being mostly correct in that anyone that wasn't Bryle, Karl, Abed or White Album was a waste of a slot but I did not predict that Karl would be first or by this much, since T1 was looking shaky early on. They redeemed themselves and prove to be another strong option for the playoffs.

Teams for Day 4

LGD Elephant Secret QC SG Spirit BC

Very important point to keep in mind is that IF tiebreaks happen, they will be a part of this day and count towards its points. Considering that 4 out of the teams are already locked in in group A and it's very likely that T1 and VP just 2-0 and secure upper bracket spots as well, even the potential 3-way tie there is too risky to bet on cuz if there's no tiebreaks, those teams only have 1 series(2 games) which can be 3 games with a 2-way tiebreak or 4 games with a 3-way tiebreak, while any of the group B teams I listed will have 2 series(4 games) at least so that's safer.

So keeping this in mind, my suggestions will cover 2 cases: no tiebreaks in group B(ie me treating it as a normal day) and tiebreak gambles.

Treating it as a normal day, Secret playing fnatic who gets long games should be a decent pick, their other game is VG and Secret 1-1 LGD who 2-0 VG so despite VG having an overall higher score, I feel that the series will be close and Secret is a safe bet. Spirit and Beastcoast look volatile but Spirit's other game is vs SG so BC vs LGD might be a better points farm since BC 2-0 secret, 1-1 VG altho they did lose 2-0 to Elephant. They're a gamble that can pay off though. Elephant, QC and SG I just don't trust and LGD might stomp Elephant too hard to be a good payoff.

Tiebreak gambles however, are a different story. If you predict the tiebreak teams correctly, they can get 5 or 6 games potentially which could end up as more points. I expect LGD, VG and Secret to comfortably secure top 4 slots and Fnatic to comfortably get bottom 4 so the tiebreak could be SG vs QC for bottom 4/elim slot or Beastcoast/Spirit/Elephant 2 of them or all 3 tying for the 4th upper bracket slot. So gambling on either of those can be options. Yawar Costabile 4dr>Quinn KJ LoA is the cope for QC/SG. The cope for the other tiebreak is Eurus > K1 > Yatoro + Chris Luck/Somnus > TorontoTokyo + Stinger > fy > Miposhka > Super/Scofield/Mira.

One more scenario is: Elephant prob 2-0 QC and spirit 2-0 SG , both those team so dog, dunno how fnatic even lost to them, Elephant 8-8(after they lose 0-2 to LGD), Spirit 8-6, beast coast 7-7(if they lose 2-0 to LGD) and Secret 10 wins after 2-0 fnatic so they safe along with VG(either of them can go 11 or 12 when they play each other) for the last slot if beast coast 2-0 Spirit they secure it, if Spirit 2-0 or 1-1 beast coast they secure it so there won't be tiebreakers, only chance of tiebreak is if beastcoast beat LGD at least once and then go 1-1 with spirit and they play 2 way tiebreak at best so only 1 more game.

In the above scenario if u believe that BC can take a game off LGD and Spirit can still 1-1 them, you can go Yatoro k1 Chris Luck Stinger Miposhka.

Considering fnatic's recent games I think Secret will 2-0 them, fnatic somehow dropped games to SG and QC, who are playing so pathetically bad that I'm pretty sure whoever loses their matchup gets eliminated tomorrow.

Secret VG can go any way, they can show up and 2-0, or get clapped 2-0 or anywhere in between.

Now for the group A scenario, Note that to at least a 3-way tie is needed to make group A teams get 4 games which is how much group B gets by default. T1 will beat TP 2-0, even Alliance and Aster beat them 2-0, no way T1 loses to them, so that almost secures T1's UB slot, VP 2-0 Aster is my prediction altho a 1-1 might be possible. 2-0 secures UB for sure, 1-1 is still likely. OG iG will be the deciding game, if iG 2-0 that secures t1 and VP slot pretty much, if OG 2-0 that secures their slot, if it's a 1-1, and VP also 1-1 and EG/UD 2-0 then we have the 4-way potential tie which will probably end up making the teams in the tie beat group B teams. If EG 1-1 UD and iG 2-0 OG then u get a 3-way tie there which might make them match Group B teams. I personally expect EG 2-0 UD and VP 2-0 aster which means either EG and T1 secure 3rd/4th if OG goes 0-2, they tiebreak 4th/5th if OG 2-0 or they tiebreak 3 way with OG if OG 1-1.

Lots of potential for tiebreaks, but I personally expect there to be either none on either side or tiebreaks on both sides, in both of these cases u prefer group B teams. Group A teams only worth running if 3 or 4 way tie occurs in Group A and no such tie occurs in Group B.

The other potential scenarios I discuss and why I still expect no tiebreak, feel free to gamble otherwise if this doesn't convince you.

Cores

Assuming no tiebreaks, Eurus, k1, Ame and Matu are the only decently scoring carries and for reasons I mentioned, I'd pick Matu + k1. Any of the 4 are fine, k1+ Eurus is the pick if u suspect tiebreaks there.

If u expect SG/QC tiebreak do Yawar + Costabile. They're both pretty ass otherwise but if u expect them to do well in their matchups tomorrow, maybe you get lucky with them.

Eurus > K1 > Yatoro for the other tiebreak. Predict the ones you expect to be in the tiebreak for sure based off matchups.

Mids

Nisha is the best looking option so far, NothingToSay, Chris Luck and TorontoTokyo are the other decent options.

If SG/QC tiebreak, go for 4dr. Quinn's scores are so bad, only Leostyle is worse.

Chris Luck/Somnus > TorontoTokyo for the other tiebreak. Again, predict the one you expect to be in the tiebreak for sure based off matchups.

Supports

Yapzor best option by far again. LoA and Stinger are the other options, everyone else looks pretty bad. I'd personally go for Yapzor + Stinger since I expect BC to do well. If u expect LGD to do well u can run ame on carry + y here, otherwise go K1 on core + stinger here for a better chance.

LoA + KJ for the SG/QC tiebreak.

Stinger > fy > Miposhka > Super/Scofield/Mira for the other, go for whichever of the first 3 you're more confident about, ie that you expect will be in the tiebreak.

My lineup

Matu + k1 + Nisha + Yapzor + Stinger. I'm predicting no tiebreaks and BC to comfortably secure the 4th slot in UB and for them to do well in general tomorrow. Don't follow mine blindly and make your own predictions for this however.

I'm also debating on swapping in Yatoro due to his good performance today over one of them or maybe even Eurus if I think Elephant might end up playing tiebreaks after all. The other consideration is LoA for one of them as his performance today was amazing as well. As for the mid, I'd only consider a swap to Chris Luck/Somnus/TorontoTokyo if you expect that tiebreak, I don't have faith in the QC/SG series being worth anything but of course they can prove me wrong.

Ideal Day 3 Lineup

23 + Arteezy + Karl + Whitemon + Dubu.

T1 had all long games and won all their games today. Karl owned and beat Bryle by 20 points to get a clear lead as the midlaner. Whitemon in 4 games was already ahead of everyone else and ended up 40 points over Dubu who was the next best support. Carries underperformed in general with 23savage ending up the best and Arteezy was the second best but Monet, Timado and Nikobaby weren't that far behind. Getting this slot wrong would be the least punishing.

My Day 3 summary

https://i.imgur.com/XHBcTDf.png 515.14 points. Only real improvement would be playing Karl + 23 over Bryle + Monet which would be like some 30 points or so increase for me. Getting whitemon right was huge as Whitemon was much better than the rest. As long as you played Whitemon + Dubu/Fng/Lanm you're fine.

tl;dr

Cores

Eurus/k1/Ame /Matu if no tiebreak, Yawar + Costabile if SG/QC tiebreak, Eurus > K1 > Yatoro for the other.

Mids

Nisha>NTS/Chris Luck/TorontoTokyo if no tiebreak, 4dr if SG/QC, Chris Luck/Somnus > TorontoTokyo for the other.

Supports

Yapzor > LoA/Stinger if no tiebreak, LoA + KJ for the SG/QC, Stinger > fy > Miposhka > Super/Scofield/Mira for the other.

Good luck for tomorrow.

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