Dota 2

TI10 Fantasy Guide: Group Stage Day 3

PSA: You can set your Fantasy team via a web browser using this site.

Making this post slightly earlier today, because all the teams relevant for Day 3 aren't participating in the final series of Day 2. As always, TL;DR is available at the bottom.


Recommended Data Sources


General Strategy

A quick recap of my original post about the general strategy that you should follow:

  • Pick players from teams that will play the most games that day (most important).
  • Pick players from teams that are expected to win their matches.
  • Pick players from teams that are expected to play longer matches.
  • Pick carry players for the Core slots.
  • Pick hard support players for the Support slots (not always true).

Number of Games Played

Table 1: The number of games played per team.

Team NameNo. of Games
Alliance6
beastcoast4
Elephant2
Evil Geniuses6
Fnatic4
INVICTUS GAMING4
OG4
PSG.LGD4
Quincy Crew4
SG esports4
T16
Team Aster6
Team Secret2
Team Spirit4
Thunder Predator6
Undying6
Vici Gaming4
Virtus.pro4

From the table above, the teams playing the most games are:

  • Alliance
  • Evil Geniuses
  • T1
  • Team Aster
  • Thunder Predator
  • Undying

Opponents Faced

This is important for determining win expectancy and match length. Team rankings and historical data are only so useful considering frequent roster changes and head-to-head performance, so reasoning this out with numbers and statistics isn't an easy task.

Table 2: The opponents faced by each team.

Team NameOpponent 1Opponent 2Opponent 3
AllianceUndyingT1INVICTUS GAMING
Evil GeniusesOGThunder PredatorVirtus.pro
T1Team AsterAllianceUndying
Team AsterT1INVICTUS GAMINGThunder Predator
Thunder PredatorVirtus.proEvil GeniusesTeam Aster
UndyingAllianceOGT1

Potential Choices

I'm going to list each potential choice's fantasy point average from pre-TI10 match data, TI10 match data, as well as a weighted average of both. Since we have two days of TI10 data now, I'm going to change the weights to 33% pre-TI10 and 67% TI10.

Table 3: The potential choices for the Core role.

Player NameTeam NamePre-TI10TI10Weighted Avg.
ArteezyEvil Geniuses16.317.517.1
TimadoUndying16.415.816.0
MonetTeam Aster15.116.015.7
NikobabyAlliance15.012.313.2
23T115.911.713.1
MNZThunder Predator12.911.712.1
iceiceiceEvil Geniuses10.411.911.4
SabeRLighTUndying10.89.810.1
XxsTeam Aster10.89.710.1
s4Alliance10.29.69.8
KuT110.89.29.7
FrankThunder Predator9.37.68.1

Table 4: The potential choices for the Mid role.

Player NameTeam NamePre-TI10TI10Weighted Avg.
BryleUndying17.318.818.3
AbedEvil Geniuses16.616.216.3
KarlT116.915.716.1
White AlbumTeam Aster15.214.014.4
LIMMPAlliance16.513.314.4
Leostyle-Thunder Predator14.912.613.4

Table 5: The potential choices for the Support role.

Player NameTeam NamePre-TI10TI10Weighted Avg.
DuBuUndying16.614.715.3
WhitemonT115.414.414.7
FngAlliance15.112.613.5
FlyEvil Geniuses13.213.413.3
HandskenAlliance13.713.013.3
MoonMeanderUndying13.013.313.2
BoraxTeam Aster12.113.613.1
LaNmTeam Aster14.610.812.1
Cr1t-Evil Geniuses12.710.811.4
MoOzThunder Predator12.710.811.4
XepherT111.69.610.2
MjzThunder Predator9.410.410.1

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Remember to factor these in when making your decisions. I can't really do the thinking for you, because there are so many different possibilities. Please refer to my original post for what bonuses to look for for each role. I encourage you to have a look at the recommended data sources at the top of this post for player-specific data.


Personal Analysis

Disclaimer: this part is based on my opinion, so I suggest taking it with a grain of salt.

With the exception of EG, none of the teams look particularly enticing. They all have negative records, except for Undying, and I'm still not convinced by Undying—2 of their wins were against Aster who played with a standin, and another 2 of their wins were against Thunder Predator who are yet to win a single game at TI10.

For Cores, Arteezy, Timado, and Monet lead the pack, with a significant gap in point averages between Monet and the next best. Arteezy is a no-brainer, and Aster will be facing Thunder Predator, so I'd favour Monet over Timado. But all 3 players are viable choices.

For Mids, Bryle has a significant lead over the rest. Abed and Karl are next in line. After that, the point averages drop pretty significantly. T1 have looked pretty bad at TI so far, so I'd say Karl is risky. Abed is probably your safest choice, but Bryle has the potential to score more.

For Supports, none of the choices look great. DuBu and Whitemon are the highest scorers by a large margin, but I'm uncertain about their teams' performances as elaborated previously. That being said, they are position 5, and are therefore more resilient to losses. A third option is Fly: his point average isn't great, but Evil Geniuses are a very consistent team.


TL;DR

Core: Arteezy > Monet > Timado

Mid: Abed / Bryle > Karl

Support: DuBu / Whitemon > Fly

I hope this helps. Good luck!

Source

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