Dota 2

TI10 Fantasy Guide: Group Stage Day 4

PSA: You can set your Fantasy team via a web browser using this site.

Posting this early just to get the statistics out—still need to wait till Day 3 concludes in order to factor in tiebreakers. As always, TL;DR is available at the bottom.


Recommended Data Sources


General Strategy

A quick recap of my original post about the general strategy that you should follow:

  • Pick players from teams that will play the most games that day (most important).
  • Pick players from teams that are expected to win their matches.
  • Pick players from teams that are expected to play longer matches.
  • Pick carry players for the Core slots.
  • Pick hard support players for the Support slots (not always true).

Number of Games Played

Table 1: The number of games played per team.

Team NameNo. of Games
Alliance
beastcoast4
Elephant4
Evil Geniuses2
Fnatic2
INVICTUS GAMING2
OG2
PSG.LGD4
Quincy Crew4
SG esports4
T12
Team Aster2
Team Secret4
Team Spirit4
Thunder Predator2
Undying2
Vici Gaming2
Virtus.pro2

From the table above, the teams playing the most games are:

  • beastcoast
  • Elephant
  • PSG.LGD
  • Quincy Crew
  • SG esports
  • Team Secret
  • Team Spirit

Tiebreakers

Waiting till Day 3 matches conclude to add this section. Tiebreakers means that some teams have the potential to play more matches than scheduled, and therefore earn more fantasy points.


Opponents Faced

This is important for determining win expectancy and match length. Team rankings and historical data are only so useful considering frequent roster changes and head-to-head performance, so reasoning this out with numbers and statistics isn't an easy task.

Table 2: The opponents faced by each team.

Team NameOpponent 1Opponent 2
beastcoastTeam SpiritPSG.LGD
ElephantPSG.LGDQuincy Crew
PSG.LGDElephantbeastcoast
Quincy CrewSG esportsElephant
SG esportsQuincy CrewTeam Spirit
Team SecretFnaticVici Gaming
Team SpiritbeastcoastSG esports

Potential Choices

I think at this point we have enough TI10 data (120 games) to do away with the weighted average. Leaving in the pre-TI10 averages just for reference.

Table 3: The potential choices for the Core role.

Player NameTeam NamePre-TI10TI10
eurusElephant14.016.1
k1beastcoast13.716.0
AmePSG.LGD14.915.9
MATUMBAMANTeam Secret13.715.5
YatoroTeam Spirit16.215.0
Wisperbeastcoast11.113.7
CostabileSG esports15.813.0
Faith_bianPSG.LGD11.412.9
YSQuincy Crew15.412.8
zaiTeam Secret10.011.8
YangElephant10.311.4
CollapseTeam Spirit11.611.2
LESLÃOQuincy Crew10.89.4
tavoSG esports9.78.6

Table 4: The potential choices for the Mid role.

Player NameTeam NamePre-TI10TI10
NishaTeam Secret15.717.7
NothingToSayPSG.LGD16.016.8
SomnusElephant15.816.4
Chris luckbeastcoast15.216.4
TORONTOTOKYOTeam Spirit16.616.0
4drSG esports14.514.2
QuinnQuincy Crew16.012.7

Table 5: The potential choices for the Support role.

Player NameTeam NamePre-TI10TI10
YapzOrTeam Secret15.317.5
LoAQuincy Crew14.915.8
ST!NG3Rbeastcoast13.815.2
KJSG esports14.914.1
y`PSG.LGD15.113.9
fyElephant14.013.6
XinQPSG.LGD13.413.1
MiposhkaTeam Spirit14.512.6
PuppeyTeam Secret12.512.0
ThiolicorSG esports12.711.8
MiraTeam Spirit13.811.5
Super!Elephant13.211.4
Scofield:KATbeastcoast12.011.3
MSSQuincy Crew12.411.0

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Remember to factor these in when making your decisions. I can't really do the thinking for you, because there are so many different possibilities. Please refer to my original post for what bonuses to look for for each role. I encourage you to have a look at the recommended data sources at the top of this post for player-specific data.


Personal Analysis

Disclaimer: this part is based on my opinion, so I suggest taking it with a grain of salt.

Will add this once I've had some time to compose my thoughts.


TL;DR

Core: eurus / Ame / MATUMBAMAN / Yatoro

Mid: Nisha > NothingToSay / Somnus / TORONTOTOKYO

Support: YapzOr >> LoA / ST!NG3R

I hope this helps. Good luck!

Source

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