Dota 2

TI10 Fantasy Guide: Main Event Day 1

PSA: You can set your Fantasy team via a web browser using this site.

Sorry I'm late—took a much needed break last night since there aren't any matches today. You still should have plenty of time to set your fantasy team. As always, TL;DR is available at the bottom.


Recommended Data Sources


General Strategy

A quick recap of my original post about the general strategy that you should follow:

  • Pick players from teams that will play the most games that day (most important).
  • Pick players from teams that are expected to win their matches.
  • Pick players from teams that are expected to play longer matches.
  • Pick carry players for the Core slots.
  • Pick hard support players for the Support slots (not always true).

Number of Games Played

Remember, for a bo3 only the top 2 scoring games count towards fantasy points.

Table 1: The number of games played per team.

Team NameNo. of Games
Alliance1 (bo1)
beastcoast1 (bo1)
Elephant1 (bo1)
Evil Geniuses1 (bo1)
Fnatic1 (bo1)
INVICTUS GAMING2 (bo3)
OG2 (bo3)
Quincy Crew1 (bo1)
Team Aster1 (bo1)
Team Secret2 (bo3)
Team Spirit2 (bo3)
Undying1 (bo1)

From the table above, the teams playing the most games are:

  • INVICTUS GAMING
  • OG
  • Team Secret
  • Team Spirit

Opponents Faced

This is important for determining win expectancy and match length. Team rankings and historical data are only so useful considering frequent roster changes and head-to-head performance, so reasoning this out with numbers and statistics isn't an easy task.

Table 3: The opponents faced by each team.

Team 1Team 2
INVICTUS GAMINGTeam Spirit
OGTeam Secret

Potential Choices

I think at this point we have enough TI10 data (144 games) to do away with the pre-TI10 data completely.

Recall that in a bo3, only the top 2 games are counted for fantasy points. As such, the average fantasy points earned no longer gives you the complete picture—you need to favour players with a higher variability in their fantasy point earnings, if you expect the series to go to 3 games. This is where the "avg. best 2 of 3" column comes in handy. It was calculated by considering all possible combinations of games already played in the Group Stage in sets of 3, then taking the top 2 scoring games, and finally taking the average.

Table 4: The potential choices for the Core role.

Player NameTeam NameAvg. Best 2 of 3Avg.
SumaiLOG20.618.4
flyflyINVICTUS GAMING17.115.9
YatoroTeam Spirit18.115.7
MATUMBAMANTeam Secret18.415.5
JT-INVICTUS GAMING13.112.1
CollapseTeam Spirit12.311.0
zaiTeam Secret12.110.9
CebOG11.510.3

Table 5: The potential choices for the Mid role.

Player NameTeam NameAvg. Best 2 of 3Avg.
EmoINVICTUS GAMING21.119.4
NishaTeam Secret18.716.5
TORONTOTOKYOTeam Spirit17.515.8
TopsonOG17.215.2

Table 6: The potential choices for the Support role.

Player NameTeam NameAvg. Best 2 of 3Avg.
YapzOrTeam Secret19.117.2
kakaINVICTUS GAMING17.015.4
SaksaOG15.614.1
MiposhkaTeam Spirit15.013.6
Oli~INVICTUS GAMING13.412.0
MiraTeam Spirit12.911.6
N0tailOG12.511.5
PuppeyTeam Secret12.711.4

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Remember to factor these in when making your decisions. I can't really do the thinking for you, because there are so many different possibilities. Please refer to my original post for what bonuses to look for for each role. I encourage you to have a look at the recommended data sources at the top of this post for player-specific data.


Dusting

If you have completed the achievement for collecting all the player cards, you may safely dust the cards from the following teams as they have been eliminated:

  • SG esports
  • Thunder Predator

Personal Analysis

Disclaimer: this part is based on my opinion, so I suggest taking it with a grain of salt.

Things are a lot simpler in the Main Event. Since there are only 4 teams playing bo3s, we have far fewer options than previously.

Core. SumaiL has a fantasy point earning average far exceeding his competitors, followed by flyfly, Yatoro, and MATUMBAMAN. To top it off, I expect the OG vs. Team Secret series to go to 3 games, so SumaiL is a no-brainer. For the same reason, I think MATUMBAMAN should be next in line. I expect INVICTUS GAMING to stomp Team Spirit 2-0, so flyfly would be my third choice. Pick Yatoro if you don't have the other 3.

Mid. Emo is just far ahead of anyone else. His average even exceeds Nisha's best 2 of 3 average, but it is comparable. Since I expect OG vs. Team Secret to go to 3 games, and INVICTUS GAMING vs. Team Spirit to be just 2 games, the choice between them isn't obvious. Still I'd favour Emo as I think he's reliable. Go with Topson, only if you don't have Emo or Nisha.

Support. Once again, we have an outlier in Yapz0r. Given that I expect the OG vs. Team Secret series to go to 3 games, Yapz0r is the obvious first choice. kaka and Saksa are comparable despite their significant difference in average point earnings, because I think INVICTUS GAMING vs. Team Spirit will be a short 2-0.

Note: If you're wondering why I've considered whether a bo3 goes to 3 games when only the top 2 scoring games count, have a look at the top of the Potential Choices section for my justification.


TL;DR

Core: SumaiL > MATUMBAMAN > flyfly >> Yatoro

Mid: Emo > Nisha >> Topson

Support: Yapz0r >> kaka / Saksa

I hope this helps. Good luck!

Source

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