Dota 2

TI10 Fantasy Guide: Main Event Day 2

Today is actually a very special day for me—it's been exactly a decade since my first game of DotA 2!

PSA: You can set your Fantasy team via a web browser using this site.

Sorry for the late post—was waiting for tomorrow's games to be decided. As always, TL;DR is available at the bottom.


Recommended Data Sources


General Strategy

A quick recap of my original post about the general strategy that you should follow:

  • Pick players from teams that will play the most games that day (most important).
  • Pick players from teams that are expected to win their matches.
  • Pick players from teams that are expected to play longer matches.
  • Pick carry players for the Core slots.
  • Pick hard support players for the Support slots (not always true).

Number of Games Played

Remember, for a bo3 only the top 2 scoring games count towards fantasy points.

Table 1: The number of games played per team.

Team NameNo. of Games
Fnatic2 (bo3)
OG2 (bo3)
PSG.LGD2 (bo3)
T12 (bo3)
Quincy Crew2 (bo3)
Team Spirit2 (bo3)
Vici Gaming2 (bo3)
Virtus.pro2 (bo3)

All of the teams playing tomorrow play the same number of games.


Opponents Faced

This is important for determining win expectancy and match length. Team rankings and historical data are only so useful considering frequent roster changes and head-to-head performance, so reasoning this out with numbers and statistics isn't an easy task.

Table 2: The opponents faced by each team.

Team 1Team 2
PSG.LGDT1
Virtus.proVici Gaming
Team SpiritFnatic
OGQuincy Crew

Potential Choices

I think at this point we have enough TI10 data (144 games) to do away with the pre-TI10 data completely.

Recall that in a bo3, only the top 2 games are counted for fantasy points. As such, the average fantasy points earned no longer gives you the complete picture—you need to favour players with a higher variability in their fantasy point earnings, if you expect the series to go to 3 games. This is where the "Avg. Bo3" column comes in handy. It was calculated by:

  1. Considering all possible combinations of games already played in the Group Stage in sets of 3.
  2. Discarding sets with either 3 wins or 3 losses (since a bo3 that goes to 3 games requires at least 1 win and 1 loss).
  3. Taking the top 2 scoring games of each set.
  4. Calculating the average.

Table 3: The potential choices for the Core role.

Player NameTeam NameAvg. Bo3Avg.
RavenFnatic20.918.7
SumaiLOG20.017.6
AmePSG.LGD17.616.4
NightfallVirtus.pro18.316.1
YatoroTeam Spirit17.615.3
poyoyoVici Gaming17.115.2
YSQuincy Crew16.414.0
23T114.913.7
Faith_bianPSG.LGD14.712.4
old eLeVeNVici Gaming13.111.6
DMVirtus.pro12.611.4
KuT112.611.3
LESLÃOQuincy Crew12.810.7
CollapseTeam Spirit11.810.5
CebOG11.610.4
DethFnatic11.29.9

Table 4: The potential choices for the Mid role.

Player NameTeam NameAvg. Bo3Avg.
KarlT121.719.4
OriVici Gaming18.916.8
NothingToSayPSG.LGD16.816.6
gpk~Virtus.pro17.615.9
TORONTOTOKYOTeam Spirit17.215.7
ChYuaNFnatic17.415.4
TopsonOG16.614.7
QuinnQuincy Crew15.113.5

Table 5: The potential choices for the Support role.

Player NameTeam NameAvg. Bo3Avg.
WhitemonT118.917.3
DJFnatic18.817.1
LoAQuincy Crew17.416.0
DyVici Gaming17.615.8
y`PSG.LGD16.114.1
MiposhkaTeam Spirit15.013.8
SaksaOG15.113.7
PywVici Gaming14.913.6
XinQPSG.LGD13.513.1
jabzFnatic13.512.3
MSSQuincy Crew13.812.1
Save-Virtus.pro12.712.1
KingslayerVirtus.pro12.911.8
MiraTeam Spirit12.311.2
N0tailOG12.211.1
XepherT111.910.8

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Remember to factor these in when making your decisions. I can't really do the thinking for you, because there are so many different possibilities. Please refer to my original post for what bonuses to look for for each role. I encourage you to have a look at the recommended data sources at the top of this post for player-specific data.


Dusting

If you have completed the achievement for collecting all the player cards, you may safely dust the cards from the following teams as they have been eliminated:

  • beastcoast
  • Elephant
  • SG esports
  • Team Aster
  • Thunder Predator
  • Undying

Personal Analysis

Disclaimer: this part is based on my opinion, so I suggest taking it with a grain of salt.

Note: If you're wondering why I've considered whether a bo3 goes to 3 games when only the top 2 scoring games count, have a look at the top of the Potential Choices section for my justification.

Lots of players to pick from for tomorrow: a total of 8 teams are all playing a bo3 each.

Core. Raven and SumaiL are by far the top scorers, followed by Ame and Nightfall. Raven has been consistent with fantasy points, even in losing games. To top it off, I expect the Fnatic vs. Team Spirit series to go to 3 games, so he's a no-brainer for me. Even though I expect OG to 2-0 Quincy Crew, SumaiL's point average is extremely high, and so he's next in line for me. Ame will always be a safe choice, but Nightfall has the potential to score more at the cost of being risky, since Virtus.pro tend to end games fast, or call GG early. Yatoro and poyoyo are also good choices with even matchups.

Mid. Karl is by far the highest scorer, followed by Ori and NothingToSay. However, playing Karl seems risky owing to just how terrifying PSG.LGD is, but do not underestimate T1's ability to take the series to a game 3. Simply due to his amazing averages, I'm going to keep Karl as top priority, with the caveat that he's a risky pick. Ori and NothingToSay are also decent scorers, and are safer choices: Ori has an even matchup and NothingToSay is expected to win his series. Finally, gpk~, TORONTOTOKYO, and ChYuaN are also solid choices with even matchups, in case you don't own any of the other cards.

Support. Whitemon and DJ have a significant lead over the rest, followed by LoA and Dy. After that, the point average plummets. Owing to the closer matchup of Fnatic vs. Team Spirit, I'm going to put DJ as the first-choice. PSG.LGD looks terrifying, which makes Whitemon a little risky. But keep in mind that Hard Supports are far more resilient to losses. Additionally, T1 has shown in the past that they are able to take PSG.LGD to 3 games, so Whitemon is next in line for me. I would prioritize Dy next, followed by LoA, simply because I think that Quincy Crew will get stomped by OG, but Vici Gaming vs. Virtus.pro will be much closer.


TL;DR

Core: Raven / Sumail > Ame / Nightfall > Yatoro / poyoyo

Mid: Karl > Ori / NothingToSay > gpk~ / TORONTOTOKYO / ChYuaN

Support: DJ > Whitemon / Dy > LoA

I hope this helps. Good luck!

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