Dota 2

TI10 Fantasy Guide: Main Event Day 4

PSA: You can set your Fantasy team via a web browser using this site.

Posting this a little early. Will update it once the outcome of PSG.LGD vs. Virtus.pro is decided. Updated after PSG.LGD won against Virtus.pro.

As always, TL;DR is available at the bottom.


Recommended Data Sources


General Strategy

A quick recap of my original post about the general strategy that you should follow:

  • Pick players from teams that will play the most games that day (most important).
  • Pick players from teams that are expected to win their matches.
  • Pick players from teams that are expected to play longer matches.
  • Pick carry players for the Core slots.
  • Pick hard support players for the Support slots (not always true).

Number of Games Played

Remember, for a bo3 only the top 2 scoring games count towards fantasy points.

Table 1: The number of games played per team.

Team NameNo. of Games
OG2 (Bo3) OR 4 (Bo3 + Bo3)
T12 (Bo3)
Team Spirit2 (Bo3) OR 4 (Bo3 + Bo3)
Vici Gaming2 (Bo3)
Virtus.pro2 (Bo3)

The winner of OG vs. Team Spirit will play another Bo3 against Virtus.pro. So if you intend to maximize your points, you need to pick players from either OG or Team Spirit.


Opponents Faced

This is important for determining win expectancy and match length. Team rankings and historical data are only so useful considering frequent roster changes and head-to-head performance, so reasoning this out with numbers and statistics isn't an easy task.

Table 2: The opponents faced by each team.

Team 1Team 2
OGTeam Spirit
T1Vici Gaming
Winner of OG vs. Team SpiritVirtus.pro

Potential Choices

I think at this point we have enough TI10 data (176 games) to do away with the pre-TI10 data completely.

Recall that in a bo3, only the top 2 games are counted for fantasy points. As such, the average fantasy points earned no longer gives you the complete picture—you need to favour players with a higher variability in their fantasy point earnings, if you expect the series to go to 3 games. This is where the "Avg. Bo3" column comes in handy. It was calculated by:

  1. Considering all possible combinations of games already played at TI in sets of 3.
  2. Discarding sets with either 3 wins or 3 losses (since a bo3 that goes to 3 games requires at least 1 win and 1 loss).
  3. Taking the top 2 scoring games of each set.
  4. Calculating the average.

Table 3: The potential choices for the Core role.

Player NameTeam NameAvg. Bo3Avg.
SumaiLOG19.517.3
NightfallVirtus.pro18.316.0
YatoroTeam Spirit17.815.7
poyoyoVici Gaming16.714.4
23T115.313.9
old eLeVeNVici Gaming12.711.4
KuT112.711.2
DMVirtus.pro12.411.1
CollapseTeam Spirit11.810.6
CebOG11.710.5

Table 4: The potential choices for the Mid role.

Player NameTeam NameAvg. Bo3Avg.
KarlT121.619.3
OriVici Gaming17.915.9
gpk~Virtus.pro17.615.8
TORONTOTOKYOTeam Spirit17.315.8
TopsonOG17.115.2

Table 5: The potential choices for the Support role.

Player NameTeam NameAvg. Bo3Avg.
WhitemonT118.617.1
DyVici Gaming16.514.8
SaksaOG15.514.2
MiposhkaTeam Spirit15.213.9
PywVici Gaming15.213.9
KingslayerVirtus.pro13.812.6
Save-Virtus.pro13.712.5
N0tailOG12.711.5
MiraTeam Spirit12.611.5
XepherT112.411.3

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Remember to factor these in when making your decisions. I can't really do the thinking for you, because there are so many different possibilities. Please refer to my original post for what bonuses to look for for each role. I encourage you to have a look at the recommended data sources at the top of this post for player-specific data.


Dusting

If you have completed the achievement for collecting all the player cards, you may safely dust the cards from the following teams as they have been eliminated:

  • Alliance
  • beastcoast
  • Elephant
  • Evil Geniuses
  • Fnatic
  • Quincy Crew
  • SG esports
  • Team Aster
  • Thunder Predator
  • Undying

Personal Analysis

Disclaimer: this part is based on my opinion, so I suggest taking it with a grain of salt.

Note: If you're wondering why I've considered whether a bo3 goes to 3 games when only the top 2 scoring games count, have a look at the top of the Potential Choices section for my justification.

As you can see from the "Number of Games Played" section, the winner of OG vs. Team Spirit plays another Bo3, whereas all the other teams play a single Bo3. So really speaking, your only options are players from either OG or Team Spirit. You have 2 potential strategies:

  • High risk, high reward. The only way to maximise your points for the day is to predict the winner of OG vs. Team Spirit and select the entire team of 5 players as your fantasy line-up. Yes, that includes the offlane player—offlane players score significantly less than carry players, but the difference is not large enough to account for another Bo3's worth of points.
  • Low risk, medium reward. Pick a mix of players from both teams for your fantasy line-up. This guarantees at least some of your players will play an additional Bo3. For the Core slot, go with the carry players: SumaiL and Yatoro. For the support slot, Saksa and Miposhka score significantly higher than N0tail and Mira. For mid, take your pick based on who you think is most likely to win, since both Topson and TORONTOTOKYO score a similar amount of points.

I personally think the OG vs. Team Spirit matchup is 65-35 in favour of OG.

Honestly, the final 3 days of TI are my least favourite part of the Fantasy League, because statistics don't really matter anymore, and it all boils down to how well you can predict the outcome of a single series.


TL;DR

Note: I strongly recommend reading the previous section, as it will clear things up quite a bit.

There are 2 potential strategies:

  • High risk, high reward. All OG, or all Team Spirit. Whoever you think is going to win their matchup.
  • Low risk, medium reward. A mix of OG and Team Spirit. Pick from the list below.

Core: SumaiL >> Yatoro >>> Collapse / Ceb

Mid: Topson / TORONTOTOKYO

Support: Saksa / Miposhka >> N0tail / Mira

I hope this helps. Good luck!

Source

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