I'm going to start with some general tips and give you a summary of what the data says—it's difficult to be specific about card choices without the schedule. I'll be making follow-up posts before each match day with my choices for the day and my reasoning.
For the first 2-3 days of the group stage, we're going to have to rely on historical data. But afterwards, there should be enough data from TI10 itself to base our decisions off of.
I gathered the data from OpenDota and datdota, so credit to them. More specifically, it consists of 6,513 professional matches played by the 90 TI10 players from patch 7.29 and 7.30 (roughly the last 6 months of DotA).
- A player may have played in different positions in the past, and may play in different positions in the future. This primarily affects what gold/silver card bonuses are useful, but also has an impact on total fantasy points earned (especially if the player switches to/from offlane).
- A player may have played for different teams. The team's performance may affect their fantasy point earnings.
- The data includes regional qualifiers. The players of the qualifier winning teams may have biased fantasy point earnings from having played "easier"/in-region teams.
- Pick players from teams that will play the most games that day (bo3 = 2 games, bo5 = 3 games). More games means more fantasy points. The difference between high-scoring players and low-scoring players is very rarely big enough to account for the loss of points from playing a lower number of games. Don't bother trying to account for whether a bo3 will go to 3 games, because only the highest scoring 2 games of a bo3 are counted (highest scoring 3 for a bo5).
- Pick carry players for the Core slots. You have both carry and offlane players available to you, but carry players score on average ~42% more than offlane players.
- Pick hard support players for the Support slots. Hard support players score on average ~7% more than soft support players. This is admittedly much closer than the previous comparison and primarily depends on the proportion of observer wards planted. In some teams, the soft support plants a larger portion of the observer wards, in which case it would tip the scales in their favour.
- Keep at least one bronze card for each player (even offlane players). On the final day of the main stage, there will be the bo3 lower bracket final followed by the bo5 grand finals. In all likelihood, you will want to pick all the players from the team that you think will play both series (refer the first bullet point). This is when that offlane card will be useful.
Top Players for Each Slot
Table 1: The top players for each slot, in the format: name / team tag / position / average score.
|SumaiL / OG / Carry / 16.7||Bryle / UND / Mid / 17.3||DuBu / UND / Hard / 16.6|
|Raven / Fnatic / Carry / 16.5||gpk~ / VP / Mid / 16.9||DJ / Fnatic / Hard / 16.0|
|Timado / UND / Carry / 16.4||Karl / T1 / Mid / 16.9||Whitemon / T1 / Hard / 15.4|
|Arteezy / EG / Carry / 16.3||Abed / EG / Mid / 16.6||Saksa / OG / Soft / 15.4|
|Yatoro / TSpirit / Carry / 16.2||TORONTOTOKYO / TSpirit / Mid / 16.6||YapzOr / Secret / Soft / 15.3|
|23 / T1 / Carry / 15.9||LIMMP / Alliance / Mid / 16.5||Fng / Alliance / Hard / 15.1|
|Costabile / SG / Carry / 15.8||Emo / IG / Mid / 16.3||y` / PSG.LGD / Hard / 15.1|
|YS / QCY / Carry / 15.4||Ori / VG / Mid / 16.1||N0tail / OG / Hard / 15.0|
|Nightfall / VP / Carry / 15.4||NothingToSay / PSG.LGD / Mid / 16.0||KJ / SG / Hard / 14.9|
|Monet / Aster / Carry / 15.1||Quinn / QCY / Mid / 16.0||LoA / QCY / Hard / 14.9|
These are the top 10 players for each role. For a complete list, I encourage you to explore the data yourself (the filters on the Google Sheet should come in handy). Keep in mind some of the limitations mentioned previously.
Gold/Silver Cards: What Bonuses to Look For
Table 2: The most important bonuses for each position, in the format: category name / percentage of total fantasy point earnings.
|Carry||Mid||Offlane||Soft Support||Hard Support|
|Tower kills / 18.4||Runes grabbed / 17.1||Teamfight / 18.5||Stuns / 18.8||Obs wards / 38.2|
|Deaths / 14.1||Kills / 13.8||Deaths / 15.5||Obs wards / 18.4||Teamfight / 13.2|
|Kills / 14.0||Teamfight / 13.0||Stuns / 13.4||Teamfight / 14.8||Camps stacked / 10.9|
|Teamfight / 12.3||Deaths / 12.4||Kills / 12.9||Camps stacked / 11.0|
|Stuns / 10.1||Deaths / 10.1|
In general, these are the bonuses you should be looking for for each position. I have only listed the categories that account for more than 10% of total fantasy point earnings. Of course, it will change from player to player, and if you are interested in a specific player, I encourage you to explore the data yourself. Once again, keep in mind some of the limitations mentioned previously.
I hope this helps. I'll see you guys in a couple of days!
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More about Dota 2Post: "TI10 Fantasy Guide" specifically for the game Dota 2. Other useful information about this game:
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