Dota 2

TI10 Fantasy Main Event Day 1 Predictions

Day 1: https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/q2jxyh/ti10_fantasy_guide_day_1_predictions/

Day 2: https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/q3gjq5/ti10_fantasy_day_2_predictions/

Day 3: https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/q43wdr/ti10_fantasy_day_3_predictions/

Day 4: https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/q4t0zp/ti10_fantasy_day_4_predictions/

Day 4 overview

Dust your SG cards as well, they're out of the tourney too.

Well today was a disaster. The only thing that I seemed to have predicted right is no tiebreaks. Spirit and QC ended up being the top teams, Ame was one of the best carries despite LGD stomping 4-0 with incredibly short games, Somnus was best mid despite elephant going 0-4 and Miposhka and Quinn scored well for a changes. Pretty much nothing went according to plan/predictions other than Yapzor and LoA doing well.

Yatoro and Ame were the best 2 carries, followed by yawar and matu. Every other core scored badly, SG, Elephant and BC all went 0-4 and their carries suffered as a result. Despite terrible scores in the fnatic series where they went 0-2, secret recovered during the series with VG, 2-0 them and both Matu and Yapzor ended up with good scores as a result.

LoA, Miposhka and Yapzor were the best supports while y, mss and stinger weren't that far behind. All the other supports were pretty bad though.

As for mids, somnus somehow snagged top score despite going 0-4 and quinn redeemed himself thanks to 4 long games of QC to be the next best mid. His average still sucks however and I don't expect quincy to last much longer so don't get your hopes up. The other decent scores on mids were NTS and TorontoTokyo, Nisha's scores suffered a lot thanks to the fnatic series and didn't recover enough. In fact karl with just 2 games almost has the same points as Nisha with 4. Nisha's average however still remains good and I expect him to score well in the main event despite all this.

Teams for Main Event Day 1

OG Secret Spirit iG

Lower bracket games are all Bo1 so not worth wasting cards on, despite players like raven who get a monstrous amounts of points, it's not that likely that they will score more in 1 game than the 4 teams with 2 games, so just go with these 4. Now there's 2 routes to go with this. One is if you expect one of the games to be a stomp, say iG vs Spirit. Then you can all in on the other game like Sumail + Matu + Nisha > Topson + yapzor + saksa>n0tail>puppey. Other route is if u expect both games to score well, in which case u can just put the best cards amongst all 4 teams. None of the team spirit cards have particularly high averages altho their day 4 scored well but that was them going 4-0. It's very possible all their cards score badly in a potentially losing game so I'd just avoid them if possible. If you believe in them however, feel free to go ahead.

Cores

Secret OG cores if u expect Spirit iG to be a stomp, Spirit iG cores if u expect Secret OG to be a stomp. If you expect both to be even, Sumail is the best core to go for due to his high average and the other 3 are more or less the same, so I'd lean towards matu as that feels like the more even game.

Mids

Best mid to play here would be Emo, Nisha's average is ok too despite his atrocious day 4, TorontoTokyo and Topson are playable but honestly, Emo scores well even in a stomp so I'd just prioritise him.

Supports

Yapzor and Saksa are the best Secret vs OG supports, Kaka + miposhka are the best iG vs Spirit supports, if u expect the other game to be a stomp. If not yapzor and kaka are the standouts, kaka was day 1 top scorer and his hero pool makes him very good if u have a card with stuns and/or wards bonus, his point distribution is similar to Tims from last year who ended up being the second best card overall so I expect Kaka to do well this year too.

My lineup

Sumail Matumbaman Emo Yapzor Kaka

Matu over yatoro/flyfly as neither of them score particularly well and matu should do fine if secret og goes even like I expect. Emo is the safest mid option as he always scores well and Kaka + yapzor is the best support duo imo.

Ideal Day 4 Lineup

Yatoro Ame Somnus LoA Miposhka

Spirit and QC cards did well as they went 4-0 and had fairly long games.

My Day 4 summary

https://i.imgur.com/Divthjh.png 287.88

Yapzor ended up being pretty close to the top scorers, Matu and stinger were ok too. Nisha and k1 were the biggest letdowns, I expected BC Spirit to not go that one sided and didn't expect Fnatic to stomp secret either so that hurt my points quite a bit. The ideal lineup other than Ame and LoA tho is filled with players who've had low averages so far and from teams that I didn't expect to do that well and so I'm not surprised about this result. Hopefully the Main Event goes better for me.

tl;dr

If you expect both games to go even or both to be stomps

Sumail > Yatoto/flyfly/Matu + Emo > Nisha > TorontoTokyo/Topson + Yapzor > Kaka > Saksa/Miposhka

If you expect iG Spirit to be a stomp and OG Secret to not be

Sumail + Matu + Nisha > Topson + Yapzor + Saksa > n0tail/puppey

If you expect OG Secret to be a stomp and iG Spirit to not be

flyfly + Yatoro + Emo > TorontoTokyo + Kaka + Miposhka > Oli/Mira

Source

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