Content of the article: "You need to play Dota for 5 hours a day, every single day of Diretide, to unlock everything."
UPDATE: To be clear, this post is mostly about stuff you CAN'T buy. I wouldn't even know where to begin estimating how much time it would take to play the treasure -> key -> trade up game in the main chest.
Long post incoming. There's a TLDR at the bottom if you want it.
I have not played a regular game of Dota since Diretide came out.
The mode itself is outrageously, ridiculously fun. The visual style is jaw dropping. That trailer was s i c k. The rewards (mostly) being marketable right away is 100emoji. It's all awesome. Almost.
You already know where I'm going with this…
I wanted to share with you all some anecdotal numbers about my Diretide loot drops. Some might say I'm "not very good at math," so please excuse any small errors. My point is more about the spirit of the event than the numbers, despite having a literal spreadsheet to make my point 😛
Let's jump in.
- I've played 62 games of Diretide since Oct. 29, not including the games I'll play this afternoon. That works out to nearly 9 games of Diretide per day, again, not including today's future games. I play a lot
- I've received, by my count, 12 rewards. Of those rewards, 5 (42%) were cheap/old/useless "Mystery Items." 6 of my rewards (50%) were not Diretide related at all
A friend of mine made a spreadsheet (TY!) to help us keep track of what's going on. These are the numbers I'm working with.
Let's say you'd like to unlock everything, NOT INCLUDING THE MARKETABLE HALLOWED CHEST STUFF FOR SIMPLICITY'S SAKE. A fair assumption, considering you're reading a Reddit post about this game's drop rates. After playing 62 games of Diretide and receiving 12 rewards, that works out to about 5.2 games of Diretide per reward.
Keep in mind I have a solid 58% win rate in Diretide and regularly play with Guildmates (+2/3 points per game, I believe), so my drop rate could very well be higher than average.
I'm also going to make a possibly incorrect assumption that most games go to 4 rounds. Some go 3, and some of course go 5 (damn Spiders). A 4 round game lasts 26 minutes and 1 second. Crunching numbers. Crunching numbers.
It takes me ~135 minutes (2 hours, 15 minutes) to earn a reward.
If you tally up the potential number of drops from my table above, completely excluding the Hallowed Chest (removed for simplicity since they're marketable, have scaling rarity, and a trade up mechanic), there are:
- 18 permanent seasonal rewards
- 10 sets in the Prized Trunk
- 30 temporary seasonal rewards
- 2 Shimmer Bundles
- 1 Mystery Item possibility
- 1 MMR token possibility
I don't know if you can get duplicates of these drops, other than Mystery Items, MMR tokens, and the Prized Trunk, but assuming you can't, and that all things have an equal % chance to drop, you have a 1/62-ish chance of getting any specific item/set/line/token/etc.
As I mentioned above, 50% of my drops so far are not Diretide related at all: they're Mystery Items and MMR Tokens. So if I want all 60-ish of the seasonal items, I need to count on having to earn double that number of rewards, because, statistically, half of them will be junk.
FINAL NUMBERS – TLDR
~50% of rewards are junk, and there are ~60 things to unlock, again, not including the Hallowed Chest at all.
So our goal is to earn ~120 rewards.
It takes 5.2 games of Diretide to earn a reward (with a high win rate and guild member bonuses)
That's 624 games of Diretide.
624 games of Diretide at an average 26 minutes per game is 16,224 minutes, or 270 hours.
That's 11.26 days of play time.
Diretide is 54 day long event.
Conclusion: you need to play Dota for 5 hours a day, every single day, from 10/29 to 12/22, to unlock one of everything — not including anything at all in the MAIN Hallowed Chest bundle.
If you made it this far, thank you for reading. I know some of you might say "there's no need to get everything, just chill." I do get that perspective. I envy it, to be honest. But this game has been a part of my life since around TI3, and I love it. I love digging in. I'm going to keep doing that for as long as I can.
Thank you, Valve, for making an awesome game mode. I'm going to keep playing it until Christmas regardless.
PS, some random images of my not-rewards.
- Can the 100 Points be Diretide event stuff ONLY?
- Mathematical proof that new Hearthstone progression system is better so everyone can shut the fuck up
- My only complaint about Diretide: Prized Trunk of the Diretide being unmarketable
More about Dota 2Post: "You need to play Dota for 5 hours a day, every single day of Diretide, to unlock everything." specifically for the game Dota 2. Other useful information about this game:
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