I'm trying to build some more realistic survival mechanics into my campaign which is starting in a week. I've figured out how I want to use exhaustion and weather, but I got a "c-" in statistics. Would someone please take a look at these probabilities and let me know if this seems balanced or unbalanced.

Here's how my mechanic will work. When my players attempt a long rest outdoors they will have to make a Constitution check to see whether they gain the benefits of full rest. The DC of this check will be determined by Temperature and Weather, which we will roll for.

For Temperature, I'll roll a d12. On a 1-2 (16%) it's Extremely Cold (+2 DC). On a 3-9 (58%) it's Cold (+1 DC). On a 10-12 (25%) it's Temperate (+0 DC).

For Weather, I'll roll another d12. On a 1 (8%), there is a Blizzard (+3 DC). On a 2-3 (16%), there are Strong Winds (+2 DC). On a 4-12 (75%), there is No Wind or Precipitation (+0 DC).

My players can do things to improve their cold-weather hardiness, for example, they can wear extra-warm clothes (+1), prepare superior rations (+1), and seek/prepare shelter (+2) for a bonus to their check.

As for penalties, if they beat the check, they get a full rest. If they fail, they get only a short rest, if they fail by 5 or more, they don't get any benefit, but get one level of exhaustion.

Read more:  Are these rules for travel and the consequences/rewards of PC actions decent?

My hope is that most of the party will successfully rest most of the time. I've done a little testing. On a base DC of 9, I feel like these percentages achieve that. Worst case scenario, the DC would be 14, but that should only happen rarely. But, I'm a statistics dumb-dumb. Can someone give me a sense of what the average DC would likely be.

And I'd be open to hearing from other experienced DMs about what average DC you all think would be fair (in either direction). Again, I want most of my players to succeed MOST of the time. But I want there to be a meaningful chance of failure.

Source: reddit.com

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