Content of the article: "I ran the Scav Case 101 times (Intelligence/Moonshine)"
TLDR at the end
So this was my first wipe, I started playing in May and just got hooked to the game but was getting owned left and right as I started playing late wipe.
12.6. came and I got a grip on the game and figured out the importance of Hideout and that I should focus on that. Finding out what Scav Cases are interested me because hey who doesn't like to gamble. Since I've been working from home due to all this corona thing I wanted to run and document 100 scav box runs, mostly Moonshines and Intelligence Folders and see if it's worth it or not and try to give back to the community as I got a lot from this reddit, wiki and all those YT content creators.
Before pressing on the Moonshine/Intelligence Folder icon to start the run, I would check the flea to see the value of that item in that specific moment. Once the scavs returned with the loot, I would immediately check the value of those items on the flea and go with the lowest one. Sometimes it might be more profitable to disassemble and sell in parts or to the traders but I didn't do that for the purpose of consistency here.
I limited myself to writing down 5 items per run. If there is a 6th item, I would simply ignore and not write the cheapest one. This was always a ~10k item, it's a rare occurrence and it doesn't make much difference to the bottom line.
- Grey dots represent the value of all items checked immediately after scavs brought back the loot.
- Yellow bar represents the actual profit made.
The first time I ran scav case was on June 19 (exactly a month ago) – this was ~ 3 weeks into the wipe and data clearly shows that the later in wipe – the harder it is to get net profit. All items just plummet in value as its expected.
Three most notable pulls (nice, but nothing special):
All three came from Intelligence Folder (IF). Actually out of 8 most profitable pulls, 6 are from IF's. Subjectively – I always felt more of a dopamine rush when I was about to reveal the loot that came back from IF rather than Moonshine or 85k. It felt more lucrative, and the data confirms it is.
All in all, this whole experiment is best represented with Graph 2:
- Blue line – the cumulative value of Moonshine/IF/85k. This is what was invested and what you should at least be expecting to get back.
- Red Line – this is the cumulative value of items you get back, this should be above the blue line otherwise you are losing money.
- Orange line – the cumulative value of profits, it's clear that after ~25 or so runs (roughly 30 days into the wipe) you are pretty much just stagnating and barely making any profits.
- Grey dots and yellow bars – same as before, I left it here for scale.
The kicker here is the fact that some of the items are difficult to obtain in-game and required found-in-raid for certain quests, such as Tank battery, #FireKlean, Lupo's beans etc…I'd say if someone is going after the collector quest should def. do scav case runs.
Raw data in chronological order can be found here: https://bit.ly/2ZJJ2fC
Feel free to draw your own conclusions from it. Mind the occasional typo and lack of consistency in naming the items.
Screenshots of (almost all, 95%) scav loot can be found here: https://imgur.com/a/71Y40MK
– It's fun, pulling a 1M+ item by a click of a button feels as good as finding 2 ledx's in a raid.
– Run the scav case for the first 30 days into the wipe, it is very profitable.
– Run the scav case after the first 30 days if you are going after Kappa and have a hard time finding streamer items.
– Overall ROI: 35%
– Intelligence folder ROI: 64%
– Moonshine ROI: 16%
– 85k ROI (small sample size tho): 10%
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