Content of the article: "Is Horde actually carrying TAPI? An in-depth analysis"
As World War Bee 2 rages on in New Eden, we are all here busy shitposting and spinning each and every Ihub lost, whether it is in Esoteria or Delve. Among the most popular spins at the moment, a particular one can be heard from the Imperium, saying that Horde is doing all the work while TAPI is busy AFKing and ratting in Eso. As data analysis is one of my passions (and kind of my job), I wanted to put this hypothesis to the test. Worst case scenario, it's good training for me. Apologies for grammatical errors, English is not my first language 🙁
I compared the number of active players in some of the major alliances in both PAPI and the Imperium, and compared them for two battles: the battle to destroy the second PAPI keepstar dropped in FWST-8, because it is the largest battle in Eve (and in video games history) so far, as well as the very recent battle for the SPNZ constellation next door from 1DQ.
Active players for SPNZ: zkillboard.com/ (checked around 2 hours ago)
Active players for FWST-8: u/NedFlanders9000 wonderful data https://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/j8ns9s/10_weeks_of_war_the_big_six_zkill_activity_numbers/ (which sadly means I can't use data for some alliances such as the bastion or frat)
Players present at FWST: https://fleetcom.space/battlereport/JZRTqKZPj56GkRdBk
Players present at SPNZ: https://fleetcom.space/battlereport/HCAmtawQciCT7m3PX (note: the battle wasn't totally over when I made this BR)
If you want a quick TLDR from these sources there it is: https://imgur.com/a/p74ZUEi
Choice of alliances is somewhat arbitrary but I chose the biggest and/or most active alliances for each coalition.
For the analysis, I have been using R and RStudio.
FWST-8, October 6th
First, let's do some quick piecharts.
As we can see, numbers are somewhat constant. TAPI is a bit overrepresented, and Northern Coalition numbers are higher than you might expect (as we will see this last point is somewhat of a constant). For the Imperium, the proportions are quasi exactly similar. As I said I sadly do not have a lot of data for this battle. We can see here the proportion of players in the battle as a proportion of total active players:
TAPI and Goonswarm activity are similar, with a bit of an under showing from Horde and Brave. But keep in mind, it's still between 40 and 60% participation! It's no small deal to align so many members in one battle, and I think both sides can be proud of their accomplishment.
FWST-8 conclusion: Horde not carrying PAPI, both sides showed up in great numbers.
SPNZ constellation, November 18th
Again, some piecharts
Here we have a much different picture. NC is massively overrepresented, and so is PL. Meanwhile, INIT and Bastion are almost invisible, but it might be unfair to them as they are now staged in Esoteria.
We can confirm here the massive participation from NC ranks, while some alliances like Brave or Init are rather absent. Keep in mind that this battle was much shorter, so we only have EUTZ players, some alliances might not be based in these time zones. As a result, participation overall was much more limited (between ~4 and 25%).
Conclusion for SPNZ-Z: Horde is still not carrying PAPI, but NC might as well be.
So, as we can see here, no, Horde is not "carrying PAPI while Test is nowhere to be seen". If anything TAPI is present in greater numbers (proportionally speaking) in big battles where it matters. However some smaller, more "elite" alliances some might say, like NC and PL are showing up in numbers on these BRs.
I hope you liked this analysis. If anything, try not to drink your alliance Koolaid and think critically (and I'm not just saying this for the Imperium but for everyone), and be nice to each other 🙂
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