Let me start by saying this strategy won't work everything but it's worked for me so far and I've no proof whether the theory behind it is true since I've only my picks/ data to go with. My best pulls so far are Mbappe and Mendy very early on, Naiggolan RB, Bruno TOTY and a few others.
My theory (and I'm sure some others would also believe this) is basically that your chances of packing a great card reduces if someone else has packed that card around the same time. So don't open packs when everyone else is opening packs.
Consider TOTY Mbappe as an example.
EA wouldn't want to flood the market with too many TOTY Mbappes basically because it'll reduce the specialness of his card and also overload of supply reduces his price letting everyone buy him easily. They will also want people to keep packing him across difference days and not have a major supply on a single day.
So my assumption is that there's a cap on the number of TOTY Mbappes that can be packed in a certain time. There might even be a spread across the total promo time. So let's say, a total of 10,000 TOTY Mbappes across 1 week. Which means they'll spread it across 5 days. So that's 2,000 TOTY Mbappe cards per day. (The numbers are not accurate obviously, just for example)
Now, we can know many people saved plenty of packs and the upgrade SBCs meant there was a continuous stream of packs being opened. So your competition to pack TOTY Mbappe is monumental.
But… today, when the upgrade SBCs expired, you've lesser packs opened, which means lesser competition, which means better pack weight, which means better chances of packing a TOTY Mbappe.
I opened 200+ upgrade packs from Friday till yesterday, I opened 10 upgrade packs as as experiment today. Guess when I packed my TOTY? Yup, today.
So essentially what I've done this FIFA is:
Avoid opening packs immediately after rewards because everyone is opening at that time.
Open packs in odd hours/days when you think least number of people would do it. I prefer Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Sundays also and I like early morning Europe/UK time since that's where I presume the major player base is and it's unlikely people open many packs at 9-10am.
So far, this strategy has worked for me. I could totally be off the mark and it could all be pure luck but in my opinion a multi-million dollar company like EA would control the spread of highly desirable cards since that's how they make money by luring people into buying packs. Who gets the card is probably random, literally anyone can get it but they certainly manipulate pack weight, the timing and the subsequent market implications in this game.
Again, this strategy is not a guarantee to pack anything and I've no proof if it's true but it makes sense to me and so far, it's worked for me.
TLDR: Open packs when others aren't opening and you've a much better chance of packing a great card.
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