FIFA 20

Icon Swaps 2 Pack Probability Analysis, including Prime / Moments pack!

Hey all, I created a thread back in Icon Swaps 1(https://www.reddit.com/r/FIFA/comments/ktcx07/icon_swaps_icon_pack_guide_including_base_icon/) and was messaged a couple of times over the weekend about creating a new thread for Icon Swaps 2 pack percentages, so here it is!

This time, the choices are a lot less controversial (no player pick!), but there are still interesting options.

Again, the way these percentages are calculated are using the market prices from FUTBIN as a proxy for rarity. This is not perfect and do not reflect perfectly the percentages of these packs, but you can use them as a guide and rough sense for how likely to pack a player.

1: Prime Pack (10% > 600k, expected value: 403.5k)

For the prime pack, it's 12 tokens. This is probably a popular option to get along with the 83×25 pack.

We also had an SBC out recently for a prime pack, and the pack cost ~600k, so in evaluating this pack, we calculate the probability of getting a player > 600k. Turns out there's not that many players > 600k (~37 players), and it's heavily top loaded. Thus, the probability turns out to be 10%.

2: 91+ Pack (15% > 600k, expected value: 483k)

Another popular choice will be the 91+ pack. It gets rid of a lot of crappy icons (looking at you Litmanen…), but also cuts out someone like Essien. There's still a lot of bad primes > 91, with the likes of Ruud, Laudrup, Giggs, Kluivert, … Going with the same methodology of finding primes > 600k, the probability you pack someone > 600k is 15%.

3: Prime or Moments Pack (27% > 600k, 15.45% > 800k, expected value: 550k)
Moments: 38%, Prime: 62%

The big boy. Moments are really pricy right now, and many moments are going for over 600k, like Lineker. And a lot of moments are usable, even if they're not the best ones (Nakata, Pep, Kluivert).

Going with the same methodology as above, we calculate 24.48% chance of getting a prime or moments icon > 600k. Almost 10% more than the 91+ pack. Splitting this into prime or moments, the prime is hovering 7% and the moments is at 17%.

This pack costs more tokens though, so ideally we want something more than just 600k, and if this pack came out in the market, it might be 800k cost. Thus, the probability of getting a moments card > 800k is 10.45% and the prime is 5.03%, for a combined, 15.45% > 800k.

Read more:  Suggestion/Rant

Here are all the individual icon probabilities for anyone who wants to take a look and do their own analysis:

Prime Probabilities

{ "Pelé": 0.05487672466141036, "Zinedine Zidane": 0.10191391722833353, "Ronaldinho": 0.06782725900425593, "Lev Yashin": 0.7008816763773112, "Garrincha": 0.16108974013510782, "Roberto Baggio": 0.8410580116527735, "Franco Baresi": 1.3316751851168915, "Marco van Basten": 1.3775950190864392, "George Best": 0.18159207069775793, "Eusébio": 0.07682741452597451, "Xavier Hernández": 0.45972676126014667, "Javier Zanetti": 1.0012595376818731, "Fabio Cannavaro": 0.5056994373861613, "Hristo Stoichkov": 0.4404658826185969, "Andrea Pirlo": 1.1097293209307426, "Diego Maradona": 0.11513041946255545, "Ronaldo": 0.030173909028328352, "Johan Cruyff": 0.06361505661386423, "Paolo Maldini": 0.1065340148093513, "Ferenc Puskás": 0.15980102221402698, "Thierry Henry": 0.24968909720941715, "Carlos Alberto Torres": 0.35669871029916733, "Ruud Gullit": 0.054354089188444546, "Lothar Matthäus": 0.17369676327611627, "Éric Cantona": 0.16440434384159153, "Ryan Giggs": 1.53654829051949, "Alessandro Nesta": 1.2682620810637062, "Rivaldo": 1.051322514565967, "Luís Figo": 0.41964554152843214, "Ruud van Nistelrooy": 1.6645939813961144, "Raúl González Blanco": 0.6947870531044651, "Bobby Moore": 1.7522041909432782, "Gary Lineker": 1.416675728847757, "Carles Puyol Saforcada": 1.1715617464371477, "Peter Schmeichel": 1.2106138046517194, "Samuel Eto'o": 0.14906811773696546, "Alan Shearer": 2.2318578521512142, "Marcel Desailly": 0.33571643322274575, "Robert Pirès": 2.102645029131934, "Michael Owen": 1.2484454860470857, "Pavel Nedvěd": 1.2292386324155922, "Steven Gerrard": 0.8322969906980572, "Didier Drogba": 0.4842455218606878, "Kaká": 0.35354208454430747, "Gheorghe Hagi": 1.3871616511634286, "Hugo Sánchez": 0.6222781238863978, "Emilio Butragueño": 0.31211137151177143, "Alessandro Del Piero": 0.9511965607977796, "Dennis Bergkamp": 1.2484454860470857, "Kenny Dalglish": 0.2853589682393339, "David Beckham": 0.7398195472871618, "Paul Scholes": 1.8581514210933368, "Clarence Seedorf": 0.9226386963858371, "Michael Ballack": 0.5789892109203876, "David Trezeguet": 2.147863201801438, "Andriy Shevchenko": 1.2682620810637062, "Riquelme": 1.4851396116545257, "Edwin van der Sar": 0.8392910830568643, "Fernando Hierro Ruiz": 1.3775950190864392, "Ronald Koeman": 0.9226386963858371, "Sócrates": 0.6817449753158147, "Patrick Kluivert": 1.6576869524276654, "Roberto Carlos": 0.3995025555350674, "Miroslav Klose": 1.4796390945743236, "Philipp Lahm": 0.6222781238863978, "Bastian Schweinsteiger": 0.5707179364786678, "Roy Keane": 1.5980102221402697, "Rui Manuel César Costa": 1.7834935514958368, "Gianfranco Zola": 1.0945275494111437, "Claude Makélélé": 0.6203455831289866, "Jari Litmanen": 2.663350370233783, "Hernán Crespo": 1.0681886511632819, "Anderson Luís de Souza": 2.1830740739621173, "Frank Rijkaard": 0.9018116377766758, "Henrik Larsson": 1.3141531432074587, "Michael Laudrup": 2.147863201801438, "Patrick Vieira": 0.11414358729573354, "Laurent Blanc": 0.6899871425476121, "Ian Rush": 1.9023931215955592, "Fernando Torres": 0.40191403977370965, "Petr Cech": 0.9626567603254637, "Jay-Jay Okocha": 1.0653401480935132, "Filippo Inzaghi": 2.9592781891486473, "Emmanuel Petit": 0.7058349037722039, "Frank Lampard": 1.5075568133398771, "Rio Ferdinand": 0.2916077047701222, "Michael Essien": 0.3145689413661948, "Luis Hernández": 1.0485631378873161, "Marc Overmars": 1.2292386324155922, "Christian Vieri": 2.774323302326857, "Juan Sebastián Verón": 1.3451264496130215, "Davor Šuker": 1.3542459509663303, "Sol Campbell": 0.6911808919291824, "John Barnes": 1.6576869524276654, "Gianluca Zambrotta": 0.7609572486382236, "Hidetoshi Nakata": 2.699341591453158, "Pep Guardiola": 1.1097293209307426, "Nemanja Vidić": 0.7833383441864067, "Gennaro Gattuso": 1.824212582351906, "Ian Wright": 2.0916364164139654, "Ashley Cole": 0.9422230083374233 } 

Prime or Moments Probabilities

{ "Pelé_prime": 0.03743475949944723, "Pelé_moments": 0.018168336610398395, "Zinedine Zidane_prime": 0.06952169621325915, "Zinedine Zidane_moments": 0.021784576271460902, "Ronaldinho_prime": 0.04626910851544582, "Ronaldinho_moments": 0.018168336610398395, "Lev Yashin_prime": 0.47811412132627346, "Lev Yashin_moments": 0.2978415837770228, "Garrincha_prime": 0.10988913272418381, "Garrincha_moments": 0.04626910851544582, "Roberto Baggio_prime": 0.5737369455915281, "Roberto Baggio_moments": 0.27307119153905396, "Franco Baresi_prime": 0.9084168305199196, "Franco Baresi_moments": 0.518108458471437, "Marco van Basten_prime": 0.93974154881371, "Marco van Basten_moments": 0.4360400786495614, "George Best_prime": 0.12387502234362541, "George Best_moments": 0.06830201733232479, "Eusébio_prime": 0.05240866329922614, "Eusébio_moments": 0.029272293142424907, "Xavier Hernández_prime": 0.31360765150284914, "Xavier Hernández_moments": 0.1651666964581672, "Javier Zanetti_prime": 0.6830201733232478, "Javier Zanetti_moments": 0.33938362285924767, "Fabio Cannavaro_prime": 0.344968416653134, "Fabio Cannavaro_moments": 0.17582261235869412, "Hristo Stoichkov_prime": 0.30046863192500095, "Hristo Stoichkov_moments": 0.15662359146895166, "Andrea Pirlo_prime": 0.7570140254332663, "Andrea Pirlo_moments": 0.3534695838598909, "Diego Maradona_prime": 0.07853747814293253, "Diego Maradona_moments": 0.04866518734928141, "Ronaldo_prime": 0.02058346292718851, "Ronaldo_moments": 0.018168336610398395, "Johan Cruyff_prime": 0.04339570846432737, "Johan Cruyff_moments": 0.025233800847775545, "Paolo Maldini_prime": 0.07267334644159358, "Paolo Maldini_moments": 0.0275835069995927, "Ferenc Puskás_prime": 0.10901001966239035, "Ferenc Puskás_moments": 0.06397301623379716, "Thierry Henry_prime": 0.17032815572248491, "Thierry Henry_moments": 0.0744603959442557, "Carlos Alberto Torres_prime": 0.243325936746407, "Carlos Alberto Torres_moments": 0.10901001966239035, "Ruud Gullit_prime": 0.03707823798040488, "Ruud Gullit_moments": 0.018168336610398395, "Lothar Matthäus_prime": 0.11848915180694604, "Lothar Matthäus_moments": 0.07570140254332663, "Éric Cantona_prime": 0.11215022599011353, "Éric Cantona_moments": 0.057984053011909766, "Ryan Giggs_prime": 1.0481732659845227, "Ryan Giggs_moments": 0.5505556548605574, "Alessandro Nesta_prime": 0.8651588862094473, "Alessandro Nesta_moments": 0.5291748527300503, "Rivaldo_prime": 0.7171711819894102, "Rivaldo_moments": 0.21977826544836762, "Luís Figo_prime": 0.28626580793694945, "Luís Figo_moments": 0.17469554433075377, "Ruud van Nistelrooy_prime": 1.1355210381498995, "Ruud van Nistelrooy_moments": 0.5561735697060732, "Raúl González Blanco_prime": 0.47395660722778415, "Raúl González Blanco_moments": 0.1651666964581672, "Bobby Moore_prime": 1.1952853033156838, "Bobby Moore_moments": 0.5677605190749497, "Gary Lineker_prime": 0.9664008835318294, "Gary Lineker_moments": 0.4474959756255762, "Carles Puyol Saforcada_prime": 0.7991936925395188, "Carles Puyol Saforcada_moments": 0.44971130223758393, "Peter Schmeichel_prime": 0.8258334822908361, "Peter Schmeichel_moments": 0.5122651299924359, "Samuel Eto'o_prime": 0.10168845117760293, "Samuel Eto'o_moments": 0.05630682833801155, "Alan Shearer_prime": 1.5224863081339435, "Alan Shearer_moments": 0.7945336710086761, "Marcel Desailly_prime": 0.22901264634955956, "Marcel Desailly_moments": 0.13229371318251257, "Robert Pirès_prime": 1.4343423639788204, "Robert Pirès_moments": 0.6813126228899397, "Michael Owen_prime": 0.8516407786124247, "Michael Owen_moments": 0.26204331649613066, "Pavel Nedvěd_prime": 0.8385386127876182, "Pavel Nedvěd_moments": 0.3263773043784142, "Steven Gerrard_prime": 0.5677605190749497, "Steven Gerrard_moments": 0.2755561669928978, "Didier Drogba_prime": 0.3303333929163344, "Didier Drogba_moments": 0.14419314770157454, "Kaká_prime": 0.24117260987254505, "Kaká_moments": 0.07507577111734873, "Gheorghe Hagi_prime": 0.946267531791583, "Gheorghe Hagi_moments": 0.5333171216359606, "Hugo Sánchez_prime": 0.42449384603734563, "Hugo Sánchez_moments": 0.1612574255360804, "Emilio Butragueño_prime": 0.21291019465310618, "Emilio Butragueño_moments": 0.11450632317477978, "Alessandro Del Piero_prime": 0.6488691646570854, "Alessandro Del Piero_moments": 0.22156508061461455, "Dennis Bergkamp_prime": 0.8516407786124247, "Dennis Bergkamp_moments": 0.4007721311117292, "Kenny Dalglish_prime": 0.19466074939712563, "Kenny Dalglish_moments": 0.10131042719553006, "David Beckham_prime": 0.5046760169555109, "David Beckham_moments": 0.2180200393247807, "Paul Scholes_prime": 1.2675583681673297, "Paul Scholes_moments": 0.5737369455915281, "Clarence Seedorf_prime": 0.6293881042863184, "Clarence Seedorf_moments": 0.23697830361389208, "Michael Ballack_prime": 0.39496383935648677, "Michael Ballack_moments": 0.21291019465310618, "David Trezeguet_prime": 1.465188436322451, "David Trezeguet_moments": 0.820858581795108, "Andriy Shevchenko_prime": 0.8651588862094473, "Andriy Shevchenko_moments": 0.344968416653134, "Riquelme_prime": 1.0131042719553007, "Riquelme_moments": 0.4238336689828552, "Edwin van der Sar_prime": 0.5725316158738989, "Edwin van der Sar_moments": 0.2752778274302787, "Fernando Hierro Ruiz_prime": 0.93974154881371, "Fernando Hierro Ruiz_moments": 0.6056112203466131, "Ronald Koeman_prime": 0.6293881042863184, "Ronald Koeman_moments": 0.3044972616267887, "Sócrates_prime": 0.46505981084637527, "Sócrates_moments": 0.19191904870139145, "Patrick Kluivert_prime": 1.1308093325974105, "Patrick Kluivert_moments": 0.43955653089673524, "Roberto Carlos_prime": 0.27252504915597586, "Roberto Carlos_moments": 0.16221729116427136, "Miroslav Klose_prime": 1.0093520339110218, "Miroslav Klose_moments": 0.34939108866150753, "Philipp Lahm_prime": 0.42449384603734563, "Philipp Lahm_moments": 0.2595476658628342, "Bastian Schweinsteiger_prime": 0.38932149879425126, "Bastian Schweinsteiger_moments": 0.1584447960209162, "Roy Keane_prime": 1.0901001966239035, "Roy Keane_moments": 0.42985023526179156, "Rui Manuel César Costa_prime": 1.2166296837320352, "Rui Manuel César Costa_moments": 0.44676237566553423, "Gianfranco Zola_prime": 0.7466439702903449, "Gianfranco Zola_moments": 0.2772380968016031, "Claude Makélélé_prime": 0.42317554216766445, "Claude Makélélé_moments": 0.20187040678220436, "Jari Litmanen_prime": 1.8168336610398392, "Jari Litmanen_moments": 0.9429932496746569, "Hernán Crespo_prime": 0.7286766020213259, "Hernán Crespo_moments": 0.2698267813425504, "Anderson Luís de Souza_prime": 1.489207918885114, "Anderson Luís de Souza_moments": 0.6069600203919284, "Frank Rijkaard_prime": 0.61518069786902, "Frank Rijkaard_moments": 0.3343865633815655, "Henrik Larsson_prime": 0.8964639774867629, "Henrik Larsson_moments": 0.4346492012057031, "Michael Laudrup_prime": 1.465188436322451, "Michael Laudrup_moments": 0.6847363044119997, "Patrick Vieira_prime": 0.07786429975885024, "Patrick Vieira_moments": 0.03785070127166332, "Laurent Blanc_prime": 0.47068229560617597, "Laurent Blanc_moments": 0.24775004468725081, "Ian Rush_prime": 1.2977383293141709, "Ian Rush_moments": 0.5737369455915281, "Fernando Torres_prime": 0.27417006957341633, "Fernando Torres_moments": 0.1028396411909343, "Petr Cech_prime": 0.6566868654360865, "Petr Cech_moments": 0.2698267813425504, "Jay-Jay Okocha_prime": 0.7267334644159357, "Jay-Jay Okocha_moments": 0.3194900927971581, "Filippo Inzaghi_prime": 2.0187040678220436, "Filippo Inzaghi_moments": 1.0481732659845227, "Emmanuel Petit_prime": 0.4814930197102047, "Emmanuel Petit_moments": 0.2271042076299799, "Frank Lampard_prime": 1.028396411909343, "Frank Lampard_moments": 0.5000459617540842, "Rio Ferdinand_prime": 0.19892339354450794, "Rio Ferdinand_moments": 0.10245302599848718, "Michael Essien_prime": 0.21458665287872117, "Michael Essien_moments": 0.12734815381120368, "Luis Hernández_prime": 0.7152888429290706, "Luis Hernández_moments": 0.3402310226666365, "Marc Overmars_prime": 0.8385386127876182, "Marc Overmars_moments": 0.3585855909947051, "Christian Vieri_prime": 1.892535063583166, "Christian Vieri_moments": 0.9084168305199196, "Juan Sebastián Verón_prime": 0.917592758100929, "Juan Sebastián Verón_moments": 0.4192693063938091, "Davor Šuker_prime": 0.9238137259524607, "Davor Šuker_moments": 0.41291674114541804, "Sol Campbell_prime": 0.47149662483732846, "Sol Campbell_moments": 0.2180200393247807, "John Barnes_prime": 1.1308093325974105, "John Barnes_moments": 0.469870774406855, "Gianluca Zambrotta_prime": 0.5190953317256684, "Gianluca Zambrotta_moments": 0.2500229808770421, "Hidetoshi Nakata_prime": 1.8413854672701073, "Hidetoshi Nakata_moments": 0.7190634542374034, "Pep Guardiola_prime": 0.7570140254332663, "Pep Guardiola_moments": 0.347165667714619, "Nemanja Vidić_prime": 0.5343628414823056, "Nemanja Vidić_moments": 0.2252273133520462, "Gennaro Gattuso_prime": 1.2444066171505748, "Gennaro Gattuso_moments": 0.6002754386695504, "Ian Wright_prime": 1.4268327180941147, "Ian Wright_moments": 0.5103465339999548, "Ashley Cole_prime": 0.6427477574433393, "Ashley Cole_moments": 0.3511920736546081 } 

Source

Read more:  Who are your best players in each position so far?

Similar Guides


More about FIFA 20

Post: "Icon Swaps 2 Pack Probability Analysis, including Prime / Moments pack!" specifically for the game FIFA 20. Other useful information about this game:





Top 20 NEW Medieval Games of 2021

Swords, dragons, knights, castles - if you love any of this stuff, you might like these games throughout 2021.



10 NEW Shooter Games of 2021 With Over The Top Action

We've been keeping our eye on these crazy action oriented first and third person shooter games releasing this year. What's on your personal list? Let us know!



Top 10 NEW Survival Games of 2021

Survival video games are still going strong in 2021. Here's everything to look forward to on PC, PS5, Xbox Series X, Nintendo Switch, and beyond.



You Might Also Like

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *