Content of the article: "MARKET TALK V 26 – Theo Hernandez Price Analysis"
Happy Wednesday all! In attempt to change up these posts from the normal commentary of what I see, I want to make some posts through out the week on specific market topics or certain topics.
I'll maybe do this once or twice a week, especially on quieter days, but we'll see how it goes.
Today I wanted to do an analysis of Theo Hernandez and all of his cards. He has recevied a lot of cards throughout this fifa despite it only being 3 months old, meaning theres been a lot of fluctuations with his prices. Ill structure the analysis as important dates or date ranges and include what cards I'm talking about.
Pre game release – 1/10/20 —-> 4/10/2020 – Gold card (80) ;
Being the best left back serie a card at pre release, his card went immediately extinct at around 15k. Alex sandro was the only card better than him and he started at a price at around 30k but hernandez's 90 pace made him much more appealing.
Market lesson: High pace, good nation and no alternatives – its a good example of the limited upgrade option causing the best card in that position to be wildly more expensive despite being such a low rating.
Price update and IF release – 7/10/2020 —> 14/10/2020 – Gold card (80) & IF (83);
Price range updates are always risky to bet on, especially given the usual overinvestment of these cards. In this example hernandez rose from 15k extinct to around 23k; which funnily enough was what sandro was priced at. High inform was released on the 7th, and being out of packs, the price of his gold card shot up to 30k, whilst his inform began its pricing at 140k, before dropping to 78k on the following and Sunday, before rising again on 14/10/2020 to around 90k.
Market lesson: A few things at play here. Even this early on in the cycle, we see the semi usual trend for inform cards ; high on the first day of release, falls with supply, rises with WL demand, falls with sell off and then rises into midweek. Its a repetitve cycle that can help you save a lot of coins if you are aware of the most opportune buy times.
Another thing at play here is the upgradability of this card at that time; it killed Alex Sandro's price, which went from 25 k to around 15k.
Market Dominance – 14/10/2020 —-> 5/12/2020 – Gold card (80) & IF (83);
With the influx of supply and the increased player base with full game release, his gold card got decimated in price; falling from his high 28k to 4k come the end of October. His IF card though really showed the power of rare out of pack special cards, the influx of coins through rewards and the upgradeability factor. His price saw continual fluctuations week on week, but generally trended upwards in price. By the 1st of November, he reached a new benchmark price of around 100k and the following month he reached 130-140k.
Market lesson: A good lesson in what happens to a card when the player base generates more coins and the card being undisputedly the best player in the league. The player base started getting more coins around that time meaning they had the ability to upgrade the teams which naturally they would gravitate towards the best affordable option out there. Its a lot different at this stage of the game now with so many options, but in the early stages of the game, there is alot of money to be made through fluctuations of these sorts of players.
Release of TOTGS – 5/12/2020 —-> Now – IF (83) & TOTGS (85);
The release of the TOTGS dropped the price of the inform and was a good example on how the market reacts to a situation like this this year. Immediately after release, the IF dropped in price from 140k to around 80k, whilst the TOTGS card started at around 230k. You would think logic would dictate that the price of the inform would drop much further because there is an obvious upgrade path, but actually the opposite happened. With there still being demand for the best Lb in the league, people immediately captialised on the drop and actually brought the price back up to 100k. The price of the TOTGS continued to drop with the supply.
Since then his Inform of the inform has risen and fallen in accordance with the 85 rated totgs, with it hovering around the 90 – 100k mark.
Market lesson: The big lesson here is never to panic sell on the day when an upgraded card comes out, there always is a rebound. There have been a few instances of this happening to other cards, where an upgraded version comes out and people sell the old version to buy the new version, only to realise the upgraded version is too expensive, thus rebuying the old version and driving its price back up. The prices between the versions of cards will always have a range that goes up and down in accordance with each other.
Release of SIF – 23/11/2020 —–> Now – TOTGS (85) & SIF (86);
Its basically a rinse and repeat of the last example; where new cards gets released, old one gets panic sold, old prices increases over time while the new card falls in price whilst in packs and increase over time again.
His totgs fell from 200k to around 160k in a day once the SIF was released; with his SIF starting at 270k. Since then, the totgs had risen back up to 200k, whilst the SIF experienced a dip to around 230k whilst in packs, but then rose to 286k.
Market lesson: Same as the last one really.
Release of headliners – 8-1-2021 —–> Now – TOTGS (85), SIF (86) & HEADLINERS (87)
Again, basically the same as the previous two examples, though this time it is important to note the cascading effect of falling prices; with the release of headliners causing the totgs card to fall aswell.
Since release, the SIF card has fallen from 280k to around 240k, but as usual, is showing signs of recovery. The IF (83) card had a slight dip from 110k to around 95k, but is also showing signs of recovery.
Market lesson: Shows the equilibrium of the market, especially with in demand cards. Cards will never really plummet in price without a reason and the cards that are desirable will always have demand and push prices back up. Its a risky though potential flip investment strategy for other situtations like this, though it is important to take into account the desirability of the card before you expect a rebound on panic selling.
I think theo hernandez has been an interesting study on how the market reacts to a desireable card in different market situations, and also highlights the strength of market in out of packs special cards. The fact that his first IF cards are still holding at 90k is fascinating to me – it really shows how resilient they are. I think that his card has immensely been helped by the fact that there are no real contenders for him in that league, but it really goes to show what happens when people really only have one option for a certain card in a certain area and how it helps to prop the price up for so long.
Thanks again for taking the time to read my post (if you made it this far), I do enjoy looking at things like these when I have the time and I hope it was a worthwhile read!
As always, if you have any questions, feel free to drop them below!
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