HearthStone

800XP quests are VERY LIKELY weighed more heavily than 1000XP and 1500XP quests (likely combined)

Content of the article: "800XP quests are VERY LIKELY weighed more heavily than 1000XP and 1500XP quests (likely combined)"



There are 65 unique quests we can get. 10 of them give 800 XP, 50 of them give 1000 XP (36 of which are variations of the “play 3 games as”) and 5 give 1500 XP (which includes the challenge a friend quest). (Source: data-mined info by out.of.cards)

Personally, across my EU and NA account I’ve tracked the last 7 quests I was given; 5 were 800 XP quests and the other 2 were 1000XP. I have not and will not include re-rolls to avoid bias. This would be an average of 857 XP. Check note (*) at the bottom of the post.



Another redditor who’d been tracking his quests noted an 890 XP average.

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Therefore, it's EXTREMELY unlikely (<0.14% just from my sample size of 7) that all quests are equally weighed.

Now you may say, “it’s just because the “play 3 games as X, Y or Z” quests are bundled together under one category, and realistically it's only 15 1000 XP quests". This is likely not the case for several reasons. Firstly, because all the 1000 XP quests I've gotten have been "Play 3 games as…" quests. Secondly, because if that was the case, the probability of getting 5, 6 or 7 800 XP quests out of seven would have a probability of <4.53%. Thirdly, that scenario would also imply a >72.09% chance of seeing at least one 1500 XP quest out of seven; I've seen 0.

Hence the stats imply that the only possible explanation is that 800 XP quests are weighed more heavily than 1000XP and 1500XP quests combined;

in order to be 50% likely to get 5 or more 800XP quests out of 7, they'd need to have an occurence rate of ~63.6%.

I have DM'd two Blizzard employees (Chris Attalus and Celestalon) asking about this, and neither have responded at all. There also seems to be little to no information on this communicated by Blizzard.

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Please do correct me on anything I may be wrong about and don't hesitate to ask any questions if you're unsure about anything!



(*): The only bias that is present in my observations is relating to the quests I had not completed on the previous day. In all cases those were 800XP quests, so the bias would imply that the 800 XP quests occur more often that what is calculated in this post. On my NA account, I had not logged in before yesterday, so the quests I saw were the ones I was given upon launch of the new system.

Source: reddit.com

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