Content of the article: "Guess the weight in Druid: Should you be guessing lower or higher?"
I think most people's natural impression is that someone receives a 3 cost card or 4 cost card from their draw, they should guess higher a majority of the time. This is not the case. In Clown Druid, if you are using Guess the Weight at 6 mana or 7 mana, you are often looking for cards to fill your end game plan. Clown druid requires many different tools in hand when Survival of the Fittest goes off: A clown for your end game activation, preferably Umbrawl Owls, Strongmen, Anubiseth Defenders to activate and immediately play down, and of course Survival of the Fittest itself needs to be in your hand for you to begin this combo. Stabilization from Cenarion Ward is a welcome addition too.
You cannot function without Survival of the Fittest. When the blank card comes on the screen, if it was a 4 cost card, what happens if you pick higher?
A) You get survival of the fittest. Success!
B) You see a 0 mana innervate and lose that extra draw.
But there are actually four scenarios here, since you are just hoping to have survival of the fittest on this turn or the beginning of next. Same scenario, 4 mana card. Higher or lower?
A) On this turn, you pick higher. You see survival of the fittest. Success, regardless of what card you draw next turn.
B) On this turn, you pick higher. You see a 0 mana innervate. You draw innervate next turn. Fail.
C) On this turn, you pick lower. You see survival of the fittest. You draw survival of the fittest next turn. Success.
D) On this turn, you pick lower. You see a 0 mana innervate. You draw innervate. Next turn you have another draw (!) which can be Survival of the fittest.
The difference is that Guess the Weight is looking at your TOP card. If you are drawing your top card next turn regardless, you should almost always pick lower midgame or lategame to cycle a bad draw and have a second chance! This applies to most things in druid's toolkit that you want to be drawing from this card.
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