HearthStone

MoneyBall Forged in the Barrens — First Look

MoneyBall Forged in the Barrens — First Look

Here's a new MoneyBall that includes 220 unique lineups, and then uses the match data to explore possibilities. This is a first look at Forge in the Barrens Conquest Bo5, presumably for GM as the first real such tournament game play in this format.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CPPvqOdqr3SOKvboywdamuHq2bbgTmvvs8cRGGsPCZ0/edit?usp=sharing

Probably best to download and view offline, because it's a lot of data for a spreadsheet.

Skip to the end for a link to an explanation of what this is, if you haven't seen this before. Skip this entirely is you're busy or don't like details

Keep in mind that the purpose of this is not to predict 'the best lineup' and claim that's what should be played. In conquest, you're almost always safe playing the best decks. But you also need to know what to ban and how to 'Tech' accordingly. The purpose of MoneyBall is to understand the matchups, and explore different strategies that are possible. One could find a low scoring lineup from here, understand the ban strategy, craft decks with specific targeting tech choices, and use this lower scoring lineup to actually outperform the more obvious lineups. We're in a meta where this is more viable than other metas I've seen. For example, one could find a ban-Paladin lineup, and then tech in anti-secret, watch post, Ogremancer, maybe ooze for rogues, etc… and do better than this model would necessarily predict, without further matchup number changes. If it's one thing we learned from the Specialist era is that minor tech card changes can make a huge difference in matchups.

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All possible 220X220 matchups (48,400) are on the sheet, 'Moneyball'. The lineup statistics are on the sheet called, 'LineupResults'.

This is not a representative meta. The lineups are unique, so actual results would vary.

This picture shows the top 30 lineups, sorted by average lineup winrates / count of favored.

Imgur

It should be no surprise that the top lineups are full of the top classes we also see on ladder and at the qualifiers, some variation of:

Mage – Paladin – Rogue

Best Lineup Token Druid – No Minion Mage – Libram Paladin – Watch Rogue

Example good fourth deck variety lineups:

Demon Hunter

Death DHunter – Token / Clown Druid – No Minion Mage – Libram Paladin

Death DHunter – No Minion Mage – Secret Paladin – Watch Rogue

Druid

Token Druid – No Minion Mage – Libram/Secret Paladin – Watch/Stealth Rogue

Token/Clown Druid – No Minion Mage – Paladin – Elemental/Murloc Shaman

Clown Druid – No Minion Mage – Libram Paladin – Spell Priest

Token Druid – No Minion Mage – Libram Paladin – Control Warlock

Token Druid – Libram Paladin – Watch Priest– Watch Rogue

Shaman

No Minion Mage – Paladin – Rogue – Elemental/Aggro Shaman

No Minion Mage – Libram Paladin – Spell Priest – Elemental Shaman

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Warrior

No Minion Mage – Libram Paladin – Stealth Rogue – Rush Warrior

This model is deterministic and the result is based on assuming the favorite player wins and ladder stats are relevant in the tournament.

Keep in mind that a prediction of a player winning 56% of the time, for example, means they lose 44% of the time, and vice versa.

Disclaimers. This comes with the usual caveats about this data being based on average numbers across all users and decks. If we learned anything from the Specialist era, it’s that specific tech choices and player familiarity with decks can make a huge difference in performance. Open decklist formats also don’t allow you to have any surprise factor so stats from ladder will be different than stats in tournaments. This also ignores player skill and any bias in terms of favorites. Nevertheless, this can be used as a sort of 'viewing guide' to understand each match while your watching it or to consider lineup options.

If you don't know what this is, please review my previous post below for an MoneyBall explanation and how to read the charts.

One of these days, I'll do better in a Google doc. If anyone wants to volunteer… please do, I have a baby but not time.

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Thanks for reading, and I'll see you on ladder.

Source

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