The Rewards Track is EVEN WORSE than you think.

Content of the article: "The Rewards Track is EVEN WORSE than you think."

A lot of people have been comparing the new rewards track to the old one. But, let's ignore that. When I evaluated this mathematically, I imagined a theoretical scenario that even gave Blizzard the benefit of the doubt to a LARGE extent. We will be looking at the rewards track on it's own, in a vacuum and simply seeing how effective it is. For the specific scenario:

  • We ignore the amount of time is needed to get the experience to level up
  • It is assumed that our goal is simple- collect each card in the new expansion.
  • Gold is instantly converted to Madness at the Darkmoon Faire packs

So, simply put, we're going to look at the amount of gold we can potentially earn and see how close (or far) it gets us from where we need to complete the entire set. Now, these factors are important and I will discuss them later, but from a math stand point, we'll ignore these numbers for now.

Now, for the rewards we are guaranteed after reaching level 150 (this is after Blizzard's changes are implemented, assuming the final 6 packs on the reward track are replaced by the guaranteed 1350 gold):

  • 20550 Gold
  • 2 Random Legendaries
  • 1 Random Epic
  • 5 Madness Packs
  • 5 Other Packs (remember, we're just trying to get all the cards in this set, these will all be dusted)
  • 2 Tavern Tickets
  • A card pack and potentially a hero portrait (not worth any gold or dust, irrelevant here)

Next, let's look how many cards are in the set along with the cost to craft (keep in mind, commons, rares, and epics are doubled)

  • 108 Commons – 4,320 Dust
  • 64 Rares – 6,400 Dust
  • 48 Epics – 19,200 Dust
  • 25 Legendaries – 40,000 Dust

Total Needed: 69,920

Step 1- Factor in Two Random Legendaries, Silas, and Epic from the reward track.

New Total: 64,720 Dust

Step 2- Convert all Gold Possible into Madness Packs. Now we have:

  • 210 Madness Packs
  • 5 Other Packs
  • 50 Gold
  • 2 Tavern Tickets

We will put the extra gold, tickets, and packs aside and focus on the Madness packs

Step 3- Establish how many cards 210 Packs will net- 1,050 and remove the 172 commons and rares that we are guaranteed to open (statistically speaking, there is almost no way you open 210 packs and don't get all the commons and rares you need to complete the set.) That leaves us with:

878 cards left to evaluate

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47 Epics Needed – 18,800 Dust

22 Legendaries Needed – 32,500 Dust

New Total: 54,000 Dust

Step 4- Determine how many Epics and Legendaries will be opened on average. Looking at Epics, on average, there is one in every 5 packs. So, statistically speaking, that's 42 epics. The first 10 packs are guaranteed to have a legendary. Then, on average, there is a 1 in 20 chance of opening one. So we can expect to open, on average, 11 in total from these packs. That leaves us with:

825 cards left to evaluate

5 Epics Needed – 5,000 Dust

11 Legendaries Needed 17,600 Dust

New Total: 22,600 Dust

Step 5- Now, we've accounted for roughly a quarter of cards, but let's say we have accounted for 117 decks. To keep things simple, we'll say 11 packs had one legendary and 4 commons, 42 had an epic and 4 commons, while 64 had a rare and 4 commons. For simplicities sake, we'll assume the remaining 93 packs are packs with a rare and four commons, as this would be the average result. Therefore, of the remaining 825 cards, we'll say that 93 are rare as the rest are commons.

93 Rares disenchanted for 1,860 Dust

732 Commons disenchanted for 3,660 Dust

So, these cards will disenchant for 5,520 Dust

New Total: 22,600 Dust – 5,520 Dust = 17,080 Dust

Step 6- Factor in the other rewards.

  • The 5 Packs: Packs, on average, net about 102.71 dust (we couldn't use this average before as we had to compensate for ones in our collection), so we'll say the other 5 packs are worth 515 Dust (Rounding up from 513.55).
  • Two Tavern Tickets: We'll just simplify things and say they are both spent on arena runs with 50% win rates. This would result in (on average) 2 packs, valued at 205 dust plus some extra gold and dust.
  • The Remaining Gold: We'll say you have the 50 gold left over from earlier, and be generous and say that you earned about 150 gold from the 3-3 Arena Runs (Again, rounding up here). We use that to open 2 packs for 205 Dust

New Total: 17,080 Dust – 925 Dust = 16,115 Dust.

Quick Note: I didn't factor in Golden Cards but honestly, felt that this was statistically insignificant. I mean, realistically, you're going to spend gold on things other than packs, too, so we already know this isn't a perfect example.

Yep. On average, you're short about ten or eleven legendaries.

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So, let's exit this vacuum, step back, and talk about just how awful this is. Here are some things to know:

  • That may not seem so bad. But, ignoring Silas, you're basically getting, randomly, roughly half of the legendaries. We'll be generous and say 14. But the problem is if one of the 10 legendaries is missing from your collection and you want, you have to disenchant about a third of the ones you have. So if you're missing 3 legendaries you want, you're fine as long as you're comfortable giving up all buy about 2 of the legendaries you earned over the course of the expansion.
  • You are NOT getting these rewards all at once. You are grinding. So you're going to be missing parts of this collection. Your collection is not only unfilled by a bit using this system, but it will only be increasing little by little with each pack. After your first 25-30 packs opened, on average, about 75% of the cards you're getting are duplicates of commons you already have 2 copies of (commons).
  • In addition, this assumes you hit level 150. Hitting level 150 sounds absolutely absurd. There is a new hearthstone expansion every 4 months, so you have 120 days to gain 150 levels. Let's do some math regarding XP. Apparently, 400 XP is earned for each hour in standard. You need 644,000 to reach 150. That's about 1,610 hours over the course of 120 days, or a little under 13 and a half hours a day. Let's be SUPER generous here and say that you get 2,000 XP just for logging in every day to account for quests. That's a little under eight and a half hours per day spent actually in the game. That does not account for time spent in menus, queueing, opening packs, disenchanting, etc.
  • Now, let's say you are willing to pay some money to Blizzard and that you got lucky and just need eight more legendaries to complete the set. You, on average, are getting one every 20 packs, so you'd need to buy 160 packs, but of course, you're getting extra dust from other cards which can make up for what you're missing. So, again, being super generous, AFTER hitting level 150 by spending 8-9 hours a day grinding, let's say you buy 100 packs for $100. Despite making the game a full time job and spending $100 on it, you still, *technically* are not even guaranteed to have gotten every card in the set. This is absolutely ludicrous.
  • Please let me know if I did any math wrong. God, I hope I did, because I was blown out of the water. I have seen so many comparisons to how bad this system is compared to this system of old, but for the systems to be close enough that people believe they're even comparable shows that the old system probably wasn't the best as is. The fact that, without the free rewards, you'd have to spend roughly $300 per expansion is ridiculous. Even if we claimed each dust cost a half a cent, legendaries would be $8 a pop- and most people say that 1 gold = 1 cent = 1 dust. To get access to 20 legendaries, when I convert dust to *half* of what most people equate it to, it would cost $160 to get every legendary for the 4 month expansion. This is SUPER generous math. $160 for four months, so, $40 a month. $10 a week. In context, a month long subscription to World Of Warcraft isn't even worth HALF that much.
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Source: reddit.com

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