Disclaimer – and Explanation of the Title:
We all make mistakes. Once your mind gets set on something that made sense back then, it can quickly become a sort of confirmation bias – and I might have fallen victim to that, because of the latter part: My poor brain simply collapsed whenever I tried to work with the numbers of the Storm League counter. So, that's it: I've previously, to this day, felt 100% certain that May 11 was what the counter was pointing at, but a very recent discussion had me reevaluate. I am a pandaren of science, after all.
A Closer Look at the Storm League Counter – and Why is it Pointing to May 18?
We can all agree that it's been too long already, but it makes no sense to delve into that. Instead, what lead to the "May 18" date, in the first place? It started when the Storm League Counter was extended to "1 month and 2 weeks remaining", on March 30 and – when I gave my 2 cents on predicting a date shortly after I failed, by forgetting a very simple fact – that I had even used in previous predictions: The weeks rounds down. What's worse in the linked example, is that I actually write it correctly, but I had actually rounded up instead.
Anyway, to dissect it a bit more (or, basically, highlight my own mistakes):
- 1 month and 2 weeks after March 30 is May 14, which obviously isn't a candidate.
- The actual duration remaining was somewhere between 1 month and 2 and 1 month and 3 weeks – and May 18 fits that bill. Now, if weeks had, instead, rounded up, it would mean a week less and – voilá – May 11 had fit.
- On April 13, I noticed that the counter showed 1 month remaining, rather than 1 month and a week remaining. Had it been May 11, the counter would not have shown anything with months, as those rounds down.
- Lastly, 1 week ago, it showed 3 weeks remaining, having just dropped after a few days of showing "4 weeks". Had the timer rounded up, it should have shown "5 weeks" instead – and it did not.
- Today, it has updated to show "2 weeks remaining". With rounding down, that basically means that we just passed the mark, and that there's less than 3 weeks remaining. As such: May 18.
I could probably have added a ton more bullet points, to compare logics to the previous season's guesses, but that's a rabbit hole you'll have to find yourself – otherwise I'll gladly fry my brain a bit further in an attempt to elaborate.
I have done the prediction thing before, and I do take pride in being right – when I am. However, the notion of May 11 has spread quite a bit, and with the current state of things, we all want to avoid as many disappointments as we possibly can. As such, that would mean that many – including myself until last night – would be expecting teasers by this weekend, and a PTR this coming Monday.
Instead, this should be the expected schedule:
- Teasers: May 8 – 9
- PTR Patch: May 10
- Live Patch: May 18
Now, feel free to gloat, point and laugh and all that. It doesn't really matter. We all want the same: A realistic idea of when
TLDR: My brain has been fried, and I believe that, if the Storm League counter is to give any indication, we're getting a Content Patch on May 18, not on May 11, as I have previously championed. We all make mistakes. This is my attempt to remedy it.
- [Other][Tips]Let me try and solve the TOTS tokens issue for y’all. I’ll try and be as detailed as possible.
- Amateur tournament round-up for week 40
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More about Heroes of the StormPost: "Patch Prediction (May 18) – or: How I Learned to Hate the Storm League Counter and Love My Fried Brain" specifically for the game Heroes of the Storm. Other useful information about this game:
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