LPL’s seeding race, matches to watch in Week 10 and who I think will win it all

While LEC and LCS are in playoffs and mid-season showdown (or whatever it's called), LPL is coming to Week 10 with 6 teams in contention for 3 playoff spots and 5 teams with the same amount of wins fighting for 2nd seed. Many of you may be new to LPL, so I thought I'd spend a little bit of my time to talk about why I think the last week of LPL will provide some of the best competitive LoL and who I think will make it to playoffs/top 2 or 4.

Matches to watch:

Top Esports vs Royal Never Give Up 3.20 05:00 ET/09:00 GMT

Royal Never Give Up vs Rare Atom 3.22 05:00 ET/09:00 GMT

Edward Gaming vs Team WE 3.24 07:00 ET/11:00 GMT

Top Esports vs Team WE 3.27 07:00 ET/11:00 GMT

Edward Gaming vs Rare Atom 3.29 07:00 ET/11:00 GMT (literally last game of the split)

Every single one of these games could affect the standings of the top seven teams, and therefore affect the seeding and possible the championship points they're guaranteed to get. I talk more about the current standings and who I think will make it below!

Seeding

The top 7 teams have all made it into the playoffs but none of the seedings have been confirmed and the rankings can completely shuffle within the last week. The final rankings will decide their seeding in playoffs and how many games they get to skip. Week 10 of LPL will be an exciting one to say the least.

***Round 4 Seed (Skips 3 games)
**Round 3 Seed (Skips 2 games)
*Round 2 Seed (Skips 1 game)

Because of how close the top 7 is, literally every single map matters in every single series, and there is absolutely no slacking. Some might argue that seeding doesn't matter, but with how strong some of potential 1st,2nd,3rd seed is, the higher seeding you can get, the more likely you'll be able to get championship points, especially when getting top 2 in the split will guarantee you championship points even if you don't win a single game in playoffs. My prediction below is completely my opinion, which has some sort of bias, but I tried my best to give objective judgements. Based on my prediction, only two teams will remain in their spot, and teams will change about 10 ranks in total. I also included what I think is the lowest/highest they can get. I believe 2nd-6th place teams will all have the same record, and it will depend on game differential and H2H record.

1st*** – Top Esports (13-3, GD: +17)

Upcoming Matches (Spoilers are my predictions):

vs RNG (1st) 2-1 Win

vs TT (15th) 2-0 Win

vs WE (4th) 2-1 Win

Highest Finish: 1st***

Lowest Finish: 7th

This team had an average start to the split despite everyone's expectations, but they have managed to climb back up with an 7 win streak (ongoing). They have shown consistency against some of the best teams and I think they will end up 1st by beating RNG. However, if they lose this game, not only will they drop to 3rd, they could actually end up being 7th if they also lose against WE. Unlikely, but possible.

2nd – Edward Gaming (12-4, GD: +16)

vs eStar (16th) 2-0 Win

vs WE (4th) 2-1 Win

vs RA (6th) 1-2 Loss

Highest Finish: 1st

Lowest Finish: 7th

This team has been top 2 in LPL for the past five weeks and I don't see this changing after the last three games. I even predicted them to lose against RA and they would still end up 2nd, but because of how close it is at the top, if they lose against WE, they can still end up 7th. They'll most likely end up 2nd or 3rd depending on game differential.

3rd – Royal Never Give Up (12-4, GD: +15)

vs TES (3rd) 1-2 Loss

vs RA (6th) 1-2 Loss

vs LGD (13th) 2-0 Win

Highest Finish: 1st

Lowest Finish: 5th

Similar to EDG, they have never dropped out of the top 3, being consistently good and having only lost to BLG and JDG. However, their recent struggles against top teams (0-2 JDG, 2-1 EDG) have shown that their champion pool and playstyle are rather rigid, and they'll most likely save most of their picks for playoffs, which is why I predicted them to lose against both RA and TES, finishing 3rd. I could be completely wrong and they could end up 14-2, but I think they'll at least drop one series in the last three, ending up 2nd or 3rd.

4th – Funplus Phoenix (12-4, GD: +15)

vs V5 (12th) 2-1 Win

vs BLG (11th) 2-1 Win

Highest Finish: 2nd

Lowest Finish: 4th

This team is in quite an unfortunate situation, losing one of the best rookies due to the matchfixing scandal and having to play with an academy jungler that went pro 2 months ago. Nonetheless, their team is extremely strong and should pick up easy wins against V5 and BLG. Their standing will depend on their winning margin but because of their current record, it is almost impossible for them to finish 1st.

5th – JD Gaming (12-4, GD: +14)

vs LNG (9h) 2-1 Win

vs LGD (13th) 2-0 Win

vs OMG (14th) 2-0 Win

Highest Finish: 5th

Lowest Finish: 7th

Despite their early inconsistencies, this team is a strong team, and in combination with their easy schedule, this team should end up 5th. There shouldn't be much discussion but it's possible that they drop a game and fall to 7th but they should sit comfortably at 5th.

6th –Rare Atom (12-4, GD +12)

vs RNG (1st) 2-1 Win

vs EDG (2nd) 2-1 Win

Highest Finish: 4th

Lowest Finish: 7th

This team is in an interesting situation, because they technically could end up 2nd if they 2-0 both of their games against the top 2 teams (atm). Before their 1-2 loss against LGD, RA was on a 7 win streak and almost all Chinese streamers/casters thought that they were at least top 2, or even the best, in LPL. This team was in discussion of whether or not they can finish 1st, but after their piss poor performance against LGD and their terrible game differential, the highest they could finish is 4th, and that requires extreme luck from the other top teams to lose/win games in their favour.

7th – Team WE (11-5, GD: +11)

vs BLG (13th) 2-0 Win

vs EDG (2nd) 1-2 Loss

vs TES (3rd) 1-2 Loss

Highest Finish: 1st

Lowest Finish: 7th

This team being here is probably a shocker, especially after their 5-0 start to the split, but if they can't beat either EDG or TES, they'll most likely be 7th (unless JDG throws). With such a young and new roster, no matter what place they end they'll probably be happy with it and aim to improve to make it to worlds this year. They theoretically can make it to 1st, but that would require them to beat EDG and TES, and RNG to win against TES or RA, which is quite unlikely. Possible, but unlikely.

TL:DR

Week 10 will be an absolute blood bath, where a single team could change every team's ranking in the top 7. EDG and RNG will be extremely like to be top 3, but apart from that literally anything could happen. It is theoretically possible for anyone to finish 1st and also anyone to finish 7th. If you have time, watch some of the matches I mentioned at the beginning, you'll see high level league of legends alongside likely throws and ints by each team.

I'll also make one for the playoffs race but it's definitely not as exciting as the top seven.