League of Legends

What are the chances of the west making it out of groups? A HOPIUM&COPIUM sponsored analysis

Currently the west is a combined 4-14 and 2-14 if you dont consider wins against other western teams, also 1 of the 2 wins was against the Wildcard team DFM so the odds for the west to make it out of groups, let alone win worlds are really really slim.

I'd recommend everyone to bring out their strongest HOPIUMTM cause it will be needed throughout this review. TL:DR; at the bottom for those of you that dont like large texts 😀

Let's start with Group A. The standings are currently:

  1. DK: 3W-0L
  2. FPX: 2W-1L
  3. RGE: 1W-2L
  4. C9: 0W-3L

So of the two western teams in this group (RGE and C9), RGE currently have the best chances of making it out due to them having defeated C9 earlier this week. C9's chances would have looked much better if they had beat FPX during their second game unfortunately. However there's still room for hopeTM .

FPX looked shaky their first 2 games with them getting stomped by DK and almost losing to C9. C9 could've taken a game off of FPX but unluckily a couple of throws happened. If this had happened both C9 and RGE's odds of making it out would've looked a lot better and FPX getting kicked could've been realistic. RGE looked sorta decent their first 2 games with them being close to a comeback against DK.

If we look at this in the most optimistic way RGE currently have 3 scenarios where they make it out.

  • So currently DK is 3-0, FPX 2-1, RGE 1-2, C9 0-3 and if we assume DK is going to be 6-0 at the end of group stage: if RGE and C9 both manage to take a game off FPX next time they meet and RGE beat C9, FPX would be 2-4 while Rogue would be 3-3.
  • In the second scenario we assume that C9 doesn't beat FPX and they disappointingly go 0-6 in groups, while RGE does in fact beat them. The standings would be DK: 6-0, FPX: 3-3, RGE: 3-3, C9: 0-6. RGE would have to play and win a tiebreaker against FPX to advance to the knockout stages.
  • In the third scenario, if RGE somehow got blessed with celestial space juice and manages to go undefeated in their next 3 games they would automatically advance if DK doesn't drop games to any other team due to the standings being DK: 5-1, RGE: 4-2, FPX: 3-3, C9: 0-6.
  • There's a fourth scenario where DK goes undefeated while RGE beats FPX but doesn't beat C9 and a 3-way tiebreaker will be necessary. It gets a bit complicated here where the two teams with the highest victory game time will have to play a tiebreaker and the loser gets eliminated whereas the winner goes on to face the team with the lowest victory game time for the chance to advance to knockout-stage.

So overall, RGE has to beat both C9 and FPX if they want to realistically make it out. Even if they beat DK but they don't beat FPX, FPX would automatically advance due to H2H 2-0 despite the standings being 3-3 on both teams. If they don't beat C9 they would have to beat both DK AND FPX and still have to play a tiebreaker against FPX to make it out.

For C9 their chances aren't looking good due to them being 0-3

  • Scenario 1: C9 manages to go undefeated and RGE also beats FPX. The group would look like this; DK: 5-1, C9: 3-3 FPX: 2-4, RGE: 2-4. C9 would automatically advance as 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 2: C9 also goes undefeated but RGE doesn't beat FPX. The standings would look like this: DK: 5-1, C9: 3-3 FPX: 3-3, RGE: 1-5. C9 would have to play a tiebreaker against FPX
  • Third scenario (same as RGE 4th scenario), C9 beats both RGE and FPX, and RGE also beats FPX while DK goes undefeated. Standings: DK: 6-0, C9: 2-4 FPX: 2-4, RGE: 2-4. A 3-way tiebreaker would have to be played.

So overall: if C9 wants the best odds they would have to go undefeated and hope DK doesn't drop a game to FPX. If they lose to DK they would have to rely on RGE beating FPX if they want a chance at making it out.

Now let's move on to Group B:

The only western team in this group is 100 thieves and the standings are currently:

  1. EDG: 3W-0L
  2. T1: 2W-1L
  3. 100T: 1W-2L
  4. DFM: 0W-3L

I'll be honest and say that things aren't looking good for 100T considering that their only win has been against DFM from LJL and the games against the 2 other teams looked pretty one sided, but nonetheless let's take a look at which scenarios they have if they want to make it out:

I'll be assuming that 100T always beats DFM, if 100T loses to DFM their chances of getting out are much more unlikely.

  • Scenario 1: 100T goes undefeated. T1 doesn't beat anyone. Standings are: EDG: 5-1, 100T: 4-2, T1: 2-4, DFM: 0-6. 100T automatically advances as 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 2: 100T goes undefeated. T1 only beats DFM. Standings are: EDG: 5-1, 100T: 4-2, T1: 3-3 DFM: 0-6. 100T automatically advances as 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 3: 100T goes undefeated. T1 beats both EDG and DFM. EDG beats DFM. Standings are: EDG: 4-2, 100T: 4-2, T1: 4-2, DFM: 0-6. A 3-way tiebreaker has to be played.
  • Scenario 4: 100T goes undefeated. T1 beats both EDG and DFM. EDG loses all of their games. Standings are: 100T: 4-2, T1: 4-2, EDG: 3-3. DFM: 1-5. 100T and T1 automatically advance. Tiebreaker has to be played for 1st seed.
  • Scenario 5: 100T doesn't beat EDG but wins against T1 and DFM. T1 only beats DFM. Standings are: EDG: 6-0, 100T: 3-3, T1: 3-3, DFM: 0-6. Tiebreaker has to be played between T1 and 100T for the 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 6: 100T doesn't beat EDG but wins against T1 and DFM. T1 doesn't beat anyone. Standings are: EDG: 6-0, 100T: 3-3, T1: 2-4, DFM: 0-6. 100T automatically advances as 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 7: 100T doesn't beat EDG but wins against T1 and DFM. T1 only beats EDG. Standings are: EDG: 5-1, 100T: 3-3, T1: 3-3, DFM: 1-5. Tiebreaker has to be played between 100T and T1 for 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 8: 100T beats EDG and DFM but doesn't win against T1. T1 goes undefeated. Standings are: T1: 5-1, EDG: 4-2, 100T: 4-2, DFM: 0-6. T1 advances as 1st seed while EDG and 100T has to play a tiebreaker for 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 9: EDG loses all of their games. T1 goes undefeated. Standings are: T1: 5-1, EDG: 2-4, 100T: 3-3 DFM: 1-5. T1 automatically advances as 1st seed and 100T as 2nd.

Overall, it looks like 100T's best hope is going undefeated and that one of either T1 or EDG drops at least 2 games. If 100T beats 2 teams, they again have to hope that T1 drops at least 2 games so they have the chance to either play a tiebreaker for 2nd seed or advance. If they only beat DFM again they have no chance of making it out even if DFM somehow upsets T1, and T1 also loses to EDG. This is due to T1 being 2-0 against 100T.

Now lets move on to Group C

Let's be honest FNC is fucked, so I'm not going to bother with this one.

Last but not least Group D

Now THIS, this is THE group to be following and to watch closely. To start with, MAD’s chances of making it out are better than TL’s due to them having already beaten an eastern team (GenG). TL have also beat MAD so if they could beat at least 2 teams while an eastern team drops 2 games, they could possibly make it out. For both teams' scenarios, I will assume the other western team is the easiest team in the group. The standings are currently as following:

  1. GEN: 2W-1L
  2. LNG: 2W-1L
  3. MAD: 1W-2L
  4. TL: 1W-2L

I’ll start with MAD’s chances of making it out:

  • Scenario 1: MAD goes undefeated next 3 games. GEN beats LNG. TL loses all games. The standings would be: MAD: 4-2, GEN: 4-2, LNG: 3-3, TL: 1-5. MAD automatically advances as 1st seed due to being 2-0 H2H against GEN.
  • Scenario 2: MAD goes undefeated next 3 games. LNG beats GEN. TL loses all games. The standings would be: MAD: 4-2, GEN: 3-3, LNG: 3-3, TL: 1-5. MAD automatically advances as 1st seed. GEN and LNG would have to play a tiebreaker for 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 3/4: MAD goes undefeated next 3 games. TL beats one of GEN or LNG. GEN beats LNG. The standings would be: MAD: 4-2, GEN: 3-3/4-2, LNG: 3-3/2-4, TL: 2-4. MAD automatically advances as 1st seed and GEN as 2nd seed. This is because If TL beats GEN, GEN would automatically advance as 2nd due to being 2-0 against LNG. If TL beats LNG, GEN would be 3-3 while LNG would be 2-4
  • Scenario 5/6: MAD goes undefeated next 3 games. TL beats one of GEN or LNG. LNG beats GEN. The standings would be: MAD: 4-2, LNG: 4-2/3-3 ,GEN: 3-3/2-4, TL: 2-4. MAD automatically advances to knockout stages. If TL beats GEN, MAD would have to play a tiebreaker against LNG for the 1st seed. If TL beats LNG, GEN and LNG would have to play a tiebreaker for 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 7/8: MAD beats both GEN and TL but loses against LNG. GEN beats LNG. TL beats one of either GEN or LNG. Standings would be: MAD: 3-3, LNG: 3-3/2-4, GEN: 3-3, TL: 2-4. If TL beats GEN, MAD, GEN, and LNG would have to play a 3-way tiebreaker to decide who gets to advance and who doesn’t. If TL beats LNG, MAD would automatically advance as 1st seed due to being 2-0 against GEN H2H.
  • Scenario 9/10: MAD beats both GEN and TL but loses against LNG. LNG beats GEN. TL beats one of either GEN or LNG. Standings would be: LNG: 4-2/3-3, MAD: 3-3, GEN: 2-4/3-3 TL: 2-4. If TL beats GEN, LNG and MAD would both automatically advance with LNG as the 1st seed and MAD being 2nd seed. If TL beats LNG instead, a 3-way tiebreaker would have to be played.
  • Scenario 11/12: MAD beats both LNG and TL but loses against GEN. GEN beats LNG. TL beats one of either GEN or LNG. Standings would be: GEN: 4-2/5-1, MAD: 3-3, LNG: 3-3/2-4, TL: 2-4. If TL beats GEN, GEN would automatically advance as 1st seed due to having the highest standing. A tiebreaker would have to be played between MAD and LNG for 2nd seed. If TL beats LNG, GEN would automatically advance as 1st seed and MAD would advance as 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 13: MAD beats both GEN and TL but loses against LNG. GEN beats LNG. TL beats both GEN and LNG. The standings would be: MAD: 3-3, GEN: 3-3, LNG: 3-3, TL: 3-3. Probably the spiciest scenario, as a 4-way tie would emerge. The teams with the fastest total game victory time would have to face the teams with the slowest. So 1st would tiebreak 4th and 2nd would tiebreak 3rd. The losers of those matches would get eliminated and the winners would play a tiebreaker game for seeding.
  • Scenario 14: MAD beats both GEN and TL but loses against LNG. LNG beats GEN. TL beats both GEN and LNG. The standings would be: LNG: 4-2, MAD: 3-3, GEN: 3-3, TL: 3-3. LNG automatically advances as 1st seed. MAD, GEN, and TL would have to play a 3-way tiebreaker. Winner gets 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 15: MAD beats both LNG and TL but loses against GEN. GEN beats LNG. TL beats both GEN and LNG. The standings would be: GEN: 4-2 MAD: 3-3, TL: 3-3, LNG: 2-4. GEN automatically advances as 1st seed, MAD and TL would have to play a tiebreaker for 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 16: MAD beats both LNG and TL but loses against GEN. LNG beats GEN. TL beats both GEN and LNG. The standings would be: GEN: 3-3 MAD: 3-3, TL: 3-3, LNG: 3-3. Same as scenario 13 where a 4-way tiebreaker would have to be played.

So overall, MAD’s best chances and only chances are either to go undefeated next week, or beat TL and either GEN or LNG and hope that TL also beats one of those two, if not both. If MAD loses to TL and doesn’t beat both of GEN and LNG or if TL loses all of their games and the repeat where MAD>GEN>LNG>MAD, MAD will be out no matter what, due to MAD being the only ones to have lost to TL. So in a way they’re very very dependent on TL hopefully performing in the upcoming matches. There are also a few more ways of them advancing but those are going to overlap with TL scenarios so I’ll cover those now.

For TL the scenarios are as following:

  • Scenario 1: TL goes undefeated. MAD loses all of their games. GEN beats LNG. The standings would be: GEN: 4-2, TL: 4-2, LNG: 3-3, MAD: 1-5. GEN and TL both automatically advance to knockout. Tiebreaker would have to be played for seeding.
  • Scenario 2: TL goes undefeated. MAD loses all of their games. LNG beats GEN. The standings would be: TL: 4-2, LNG: 4-2, GEN: 3-3 MAD: 1-5. LNG and TL both automatically advance to knockout. Tiebreaker would have to be played for seeding.
  • Scenario 3/4: TL goes undefeated. LNG beats GEN. MAD beats one of GEN or LNG. The standings would be: TL: 4-2, LNG: 4-2/3-3, GEN: 2-4/3-3 MAD: 2-4. If MAD beats GEN, TL and LNG both automatically qualify with the two of them having to play a tiebreaker for seeding. If MAD beats LNG, TL would automatically qualify as 1st seed and LNG and GEN would have to play a tiebreaker for 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 5/6: TL goes undefeated. GEN beats LNG. MAD beats one of GEN or LNG. The standings would be: TL: 4-2, LNG: 3-3/2-4, GEN: 3-3/4-2 MAD: 2-4. If MAD beats GEN, TL would automatically qualify as 1st seed and LNG and GEN would have to play a tiebreaker for 2nd seed. If MAD beats LNG, TL and GEN would automatically qualify but would have to play a tiebreaker for seeding.
  • Scenario 7: TL beats GEN and MAD but loses against LNG. LNG beats GEN. MAD loses all of their games. The standings would be: LNG: 5-1, GEN: 3-3, TL: 3-3, MAD: 1-5. LNG advances as 1st seed, TL has to play against GEN for 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 8: TL beats LNG and MAD but loses against GEN. GEN beats LNG. MAD loses all of their games. The standings would be: GEN: 5-1, TL: 3-3, LNG: 3-3, MAD: 1-5. GEN advances as 1st seed, TL has to play against LNG for 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 9/10: TL beats LNG and MAD but loses against GEN. GEN beats LNG. MAD beats one of GEN or LNG. The standings would be: GEN: 4-2/5-1, LNG: 3-3/2-4, TL: 3-3, MAD: 2-4. GEN automatically qualifies as 1st seed. If MAD beats GEN, TL and LNG would have to play a tiebreaker for 2nd seed. If MAD beats LNG, TL automatically qualifies as 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 11/12: TL beats LNG and MAD but loses against GEN. LNG beats GEN. MAD beats LNG. The standings would be: GEN: 4-2, LNG: 3-3, TL: 3-3, MAD: 2-4. GEN advances as 1st seed, TL and LNG would have to play a tiebreaker for 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 13/14: TL beats GEN and MAD but loses against LNG. LNG beats GEN. MAD beats GEN/LNG. The standings would be: LNG: 5-1/4-2, GEN:2-4/3-3 TL: 3-3, MAD: 2-4. LNG automatically qualifies as 1st seed. If MAD beats GEN, TL would automatically qualify as 2nd seed. If MAD beats LNG, TL would have to play a tiebreaker for 2nd seed.
  • Scenario 15: TL beats GEN and MAD but loses against LNG. LNG beats GEN. MAD beats both GEN and LNG. The standings would be: LNG: 4-2, GEN: 3-3, TL: 3-3, MAD: 3-3. LNG automatically qualifies as 1st seed. TL, GEN, and MAD will have to play a 3-way tiebreaker.
  • Scenario 16: TL beats GEN and MAD but loses against LNG. GEN beats LNG. MAD beats both GEN and LNG. The standings would be: LNG: 3-3, GEN: 3-3 TL: 3-3, MAD: 3-3. Spiciest scenario again, 4-way tiebreaker.
  • Scenario 17: TL beats LNG and MAD but loses against GEN. LNG beats GEN. MAD beats both GEN and LNG. The standings would be: LNG: 3-3 , GEN: 3-3 TL: 3-3 , MAD: 3-3. 4-way tiebreaker.
  • Scenario 18: TL beats LNG and MAD but loses against GEN. GEN beats LNG. MAD beats both GEN and LNG. The standings would be: GEN: 4-2, LNG: 3-3, TL: 3-3, MAD: 3-3. GEN automatically qualifies as 1st seed. TL, LNG, and MAD will have to play a 3-way tiebreaker.

So overall, if we compare the results of the scenarios to MAD’s, the chances of TL making it out are definitely lower as they’ll most of the time have to play a tiebreaker to get out. There are also more scenarios where even if TL beats MAD and 1 eastern team, they still don’t make it out of groups. The only scenario where TL automatically qualifies for group stages and doesn’t have to play tiebreakers is by either going undefeated (with the exception of scenario 4) or hope for scenario 10 where TL beats MAD and LNG, GEN beats LNG and MAD, MAD beats LNG. However, the amount of possible ties in this group is spicy af. It really is looking like anything could happen.

TL:DR;

  • Group A: RGE has to beat both C9 and FPX if they want to realistically make it out. Even if they beat DK but they don't beat FPX, FPX would automatically advance due to H2H 2-0 despite the standings being 3-3 on both teams. If they don't beat C9 they would have to beat both DK AND FPX and still have to play a tiebreaker against FPX to make it out. C9’s chances to make it out aren’t as good due to them being 0-3. Their chances of making it out are really unrealistic, unless a miracle somehow happens. The closest thing to reality would be FPX somehow losing all 3 games and a 3-way tiebreaker would have to be played.
  • Group B: 100T chances are pretty slim. Their only win is against a wildcard which is expected to be a free win for every other team. Their only chances of getting out are either by going undefeated or hoping that one of T1 or EDG completely collapses. Even if they go undefeated they’re only guaranteed to get out if T1 doesn’t manage to beat EDG. The best scenarios that could actually happen would be either scenario 5 or 8 and try to get to knockout stages through tiebreakers.
  • Group C: FNC is fucked.
  • Group D: MAD have better chances of making it out due to already having beat an eastern team. TL’s chances are slimmer due to being 0-2 against what we assume are the toughest teams in the group. If we ignore the scenarios where the individual team goes undefeated, and assume that they’re able to beat their western counterpart and one eastern team, each team has the following scenarios where they automatically advance: TL = scenario 10; MAD = scenario 8, 9, 12. Also a bunch of possible tiebreakers, with even 4-way tiebreakers being possible which would give both TL and MAD a chance to make it out.

Source

Similar Guides

    None Found


More about League of Legends

Post: "What are the chances of the west making it out of groups? A HOPIUM&COPIUM sponsored analysis" specifically for the game League of Legends. Other useful information about this game:





Top 20 NEW Medieval Games of 2021

Swords, dragons, knights, castles - if you love any of this stuff, you might like these games throughout 2021.



10 NEW Shooter Games of 2021 With Over The Top Action

We've been keeping our eye on these crazy action oriented first and third person shooter games releasing this year. What's on your personal list? Let us know!



Top 10 NEW Survival Games of 2021

Survival video games are still going strong in 2021. Here's everything to look forward to on PC, PS5, Xbox Series X, Nintendo Switch, and beyond.



You Might Also Like

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *