So the reason for this is a post on r/monsterhunterrage yesterday where a poor sod had to hunt 69 (nice) Magnamalos to obtain a single orb. It reminded me of a video in which GaijinHunter mentions that it took him over 100 Rathalos to get a single mantle in an older game. In the post from yesterday were people that asked for higher drop rates on rare materials, especially since we now got decorations that require them for crafting. With me being someone who regularly bribes the RNG gods and got 3 Mizu orbs on a casual hunt I got afraid that I actually might get blessed like the rains down in africa if a change like that might ever happen. So how high are the chances anyways that you get an orb? How many Magnamalos do you have to hunt until you get your juicy 5 orbs to slot in handicraft 5?

TL;DR: It's roughly 15% **without** cats, no good luck skill and the absolute minimum of target rewards slots. You have a roughly 98% chance of getting 5 or more orbs in those 69 (nice) hunts so the poor guy was just insanely unlucky. Don't get discouraged, chances for rare items are more likely than you might expect!

First it's important to note how the reward system in Monster Hunter works in the first place. If you know about this, feel free to skip this part. The first line in your reward screen is the **target rewards** and to be honest it's hard to find a source on how they're exactly generated. There's some RNG magic and you get a certain amount of reward slots. I'll just go by the comment from u/Ancestral_Grape in this post. The minimum amount of target rewards created is always 4. Based on experience it's closer to I'd say 6 but it doesn't really matter here. Let's just go with absolute worst luck without the good luck skill and say 4 target rewards per hunt.

Next are **capture rewards** which you obviously only get if you cap the monster. The game generates 2 rewards out of a monster specific reward pool. This one is often times different from the normal carving pool which means it might not be optimal for you to always cap the monster. Speaking of which, the **carving rewards** and the capture rewards are mutually exclusive so for any calculation we only have to look at what gives us a better chance of getting that specific item and choosing appropriately.

The third important reward slots are the **break rewards** which you get for breaking a specific part of the monster. Note that the reward for the tail is a carve reward and doesn't give you an additional slot on the reward screen (not 100% sure on this tbh, correct me if I'm wrong please). Everything else provides you with an additional item (sometimes two items, *not two slots*) from a pool based on the part you broke.

**Shinies** choose from a specific shiny pool and are items you simply pick up after you did specific actions in the hunt. Most commonly is probably the wyvern ride that provides you with up to 3 shinies for playing real time pokemon. You can generate more shinies for all kinds of different things but for the sake of consistency we'll just go with 3 shinies per hunt, assuming you beat up Magnamalo with whatever else runs around on the map.

With that out of the way let's do some quicc mafs for the magna orb. Looking into the game's hunter's info (such an amazing QOL feature btw.) gives us the following numbers, wait actually, let's talk about how to actually do that quicc mafs first. Thankfully Monster Hunter rewards are **completely independent** of each other, meaning the first slot in the target rewards doesn't care about the second slot in the target rewards. If you got an orb in the first slot, you might get a second one in the third slot. The same goes for the different categories of rewards. The capture reward won't lock you out of an orb just because you got one in the target rewards. That's great because we can look at the rewards of a specific item as incredibly loaded coin flips. The first slot of the target rewards is nothing but a loaded coin flip to either get an orb or not get an orb. Same with the second slot, third, etc. If my completely rudimentary statistics skills don't fail me right now, we can calculate the chance of getting an orb in either reward category (that has multiple slots) with a simple binomial probability function. Since I'm lazy and you probably only read the TL;DR, I'll just smash everything into a calculator and be done with it. Anyways, numbers, where they at?

- Target reward: 1%
- Capture reward: 3%
- Head break: 3%
- Tail carve: 1%
- Shiny: 1%
- Body carve: 1%

First thing we need to figure out is if we want to cap or kill the Magnamalo. Using our trusty calculator for the carve posibility gives us P(X >= x) = 0.029701 = 2.97%. The same calculation for the capture gives us P(X >= x) = 0.0591 = 5.91%. In other words, carving one or more orb is roughly 3%, getting one or more in the capture reward is roughly 6%. We go as any other random online group and capture for the orb. *Theoretically* you can get more orbs when you carve since you have the chance for 3 instead of 2 orbs but c'mon mate, let's not, let's just not. In any case I'll spare you the P(X what the hell stuff and just give you the percentages of getting an orb in either reward screen.

- Target reward (4 slots): 3.94%
- Capture reward: 5.91%
- Head break (only one head = one slot): 3%
- Tail carve: 1%
- Shiny (3 slots): 2.97%

Simple enough. What we want to find out now is how high the probability is to get at least one orb out of all those rewards. All we have to do is look at the probability of none of those things happening. For example the chance of us not getting an orb from the tail carve is 99%. Now, since all the rewards happen independently from each other (thankfully) the probability of us not getting an orb is simply the **product of the individual probabilities**, in other words

P(no orb) = (1-0.0394) * (1-0.0591) * (1-0.03) * (1-0.01) * (1-0,0297) = 0.8422

Now, the last step is easy since getting the probability for at least one orb is the same thing as 1 – the probability for no orb.

P(at least one orb) = 1 – 0.8422 = 0.1578 = 15.78%

Let's just say 15% because we go the full bad luck route here (and we dropped a lot of decimals but eh). But what the hell does this mean? Well, simply said, the probability to get at least one Magnamalo orb if you cut and carve the tail, pick up three shinies, break the head, cap it and are unlucky enough to get only 4 target reward slots is roughly 15%. If you fulfill these requirements you have a 99.99% chance to get a magna orb in 69 (nice) runs. Just as a side note, if you get 7 slots instead of 4 in your target rewards, the probability of getting an orb jumps to roughly 18% and if you have two cats with you that pilfer once with a 0.5% chance for an orb (I'm assuming cat pilfer works on where they strike so they'd need to strike the tail specifically but with the chance of striking it and carving the tail after you cut it, half a % might be an okayish estimation) you'll get to approximately 19%. All of this is without the Good Luck skill which I deliberately excluded because I feel like only a handfull of people would go out and make a farming set with the skill in it. Also the time advantage of slotting in dps skills might outweigh the advantage in getting more target reward slots overall.

Mason, what do those numbers mean? Well, first of all I'm praying to gogmazios that my quicc mafs is actually correct and I didn't dupe anyone in reading this wall of text for bad basic statistics. Other than that I wanted to show that "properly" hunting for a certain item might not give you the low odds you might expect when looking at the reward tables. In fact with just 15% chance (again, no good luck, catless and with minimum amount of target rewards) you already have a roughly 80% chance to get *at least* one orb in 10 Magnamalo hunts. If you need 10 minutes to hunt one, chances are high that it might not even take you two hours to get that purple ball of RNG. If you read all this I have to ask, why? You know your chances for getting a magna orb in the time it took you to read this are actually pretty decent, right? You could have your orb already. Don't get frustrated, you know what they say Vegeta, if you fall off that horse you get right back up and you eat that horse!

With all that said, happy hunting guys, see you online o/

– Source

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