Monster Hunter World

Talisman Melding Probabilities and System Guide

This post attempts to shed light on the random talisman system in Monster Hunter Rise. Following the data mine of v1.0.0 and the corresponding max talisman sheet that was floating around, I decided to dive a bit deeper into the talisman model. As a result, I made a workbook. This workbook helps answer questions like "I need talisman X, what should I do?" "I want talisman X for a set, can I feasibly farm it?" "I need a talisman with a skill of at least level X and deco slots Y, can I make it, and if so how easy will it be to make?" Quick Take-Aways and melding strategy can be found at the bottom of this post.

Workbook Content:

  • An explanation of how I believe the system to work
  • Usable transcriptions from the data mine
  • A summary of Tier 3 and Tier 4 melding probabilities with various attributes (eg. probability of rolling a specific skill, probability of rolling a specific skill of some level, probability of rolling a specific skill of some level with select decoration slots, etc.)
  • The probability expansions to arrive at the Tier 3 and Tier 4 summary stats
  • Explanations and examples of how to use the summary stats table to find the probabilities that you're looking for
  • Note: all probabilities are on a per talisman basis. If you are looking for probability on a melding basis, you can either use the formula P(meld success) = 1- (1-P(talisman success))number of talismans/meld or estimate by multiplying the per talisman probability by the number of talismans in your meld

Link to the published workbook: workbook

How Melding Works

As we all know, we throw some stuff in and get some stuff out. However, what happens behind the scenes is actually a fairly sophisticated procedural generation of talismans. Rather than have a bunch of independent rolls, each roll is dependent upon the first roll and has been structured with a game designer's touch for a target player experience.

The system changes based on the melding tier. Tiers1-3 are simplistic. Tiers 4-5 are complex. For Tiers 4-5, when a talisman is being created, a "die" is rolled to randomly determine the Skill Grade for the first talisman skill. Based on this first Skill Grade, a second die is selected and rolled to determine if the talisman will have a second skill and if so a third die is then rolled to determine the second skill's Skill Grade. Given Skill Grade 1 and Skill Grade 2, dice are selected and rolled to determine the skill(s) for the talisman, the level of skill(s) for the talisman, and the decoration slot(s) (if any) for the talisman. Skills each have their own level die, with similarities between skill archetypes. Decorations have 3 possible slots – each decoration slot has its own die that corresponds to the permutation of skill grades.

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Note: The above discussion and workbook are developed from inferences made by me (a third party) of the data-mined talisman look up tables and as such may not be entirely accurate. In particular, Tier 1-3 are more difficult to draw inferences on. My assumptions re: Tier 3 decorations using the same tables as Tier 4+ may be incorrect for example.

Note on Skill Grades and permutations:

Skills for talismans are separated into grades by the developers. Skill Grades are S, A, B, and C. For example: Crit Boost, Handicraft, and Mushroom Mancer are all S Grade skills. WEX, Atk Boost, and Crit Eye are all A Grade skills. The decoration slots are influenced by the skill grade permutations. While a CB-WEX talisman and WEX-CB talisman are the same thing to the player, they are not the same thing to the system. In calculating probabilities, I have partitioned the outcome space by skill slot permutations to handle the dependent RVs in the system. Eg. SA, AS, AA, AB, AC, BA, CA are all the permutations that WEX2 slot 2 could show up, with different probabilities of hitting WEX2 slot 2 for each. In short, I am using lots of P(AB) = P(A|B)*P(B) and appropriate sums to reach summary probabilities.

Quick Take-Aways:

  • If you are rolling for 1 point in a specific A Grade skill (WEX) with a 2 slot decoration, you are far better off using Tier 3 than Tier 4. Odds of a talisman having WEX1 2-slot through Tier 3 is ~1/100. Odds of a talisman having WEX1 2-slot through Tier 4 is ~1/1500. Odds of a talisman having WEX2 2-slot is ~1/2300
  • If you are rolling for maximum usable decoration slots with a specific Grade B or C skill (eg. Quick Sheathe 3-2-1 or 2-2-1), you are better off using Tier 3
  • Grade A and S skills cannot have more than 1 2-slot or higher decoration (cap is 3-1-1)
  • Farming a specific skill with a specific level is generally feasible. Farming a specific skill with a specific decoration slot configuration is generally not feasible
  • Farming for a specific combination of skills and levels is generally impossible. Eg. Crit Boost 2 WEX 2 is not humanly feasible, but it is more feasible than Crit Boost 2 Handicraft 2
  • Farming for a specific combination of skills and levels and decoration slots is so humanly infeasible that it is not even worth considering and not included in my summary tables. The calculations are straightforward enough for the curious but the outcome space is so massive and individual probabilities so low it is not feasible nor useful to list specific permutation probabilities
  • All other questions can be derived from the tables provided in the workbook
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General Strategy and Advice

For most people, using Tier 3 melding to get WEX1 with a 2-slot is going to be your best option. This is a fairly powerful talisman with decent enough probability of rolling that farming Tier 3 until you have 1 is probably your best use of time and resources. Once you have acquired WEX1 with a 2-slot (or your build's equivalent) it's time to move onto RNJesus's wild ride. Mindfulness and flexibility will be your best asset for improving your build beyond your WEX1 2-slot talisman.

What does that mean? You want to be on the lookout for build-adjacent skills. For example, if you are doing a blade master DPS build and you hit a Crit Eye 3 Protective Polish talisman with a 2-slot then it's time to think whether or not you can use that in your build. Protective Polish with 15 affinity may be worth giving up WEX 3 for example in effective DPS. If you're lucky enough to roll a crit boost talisman, similarly its time to think about whether or not you can rebuild your armor to fit the crit boost talisman. In all likelihood, the game designers want you not to farm for a specific talisman but rather have build flexibility such that talismans inspire you to try new builds. For example, Mushroom Mancer is an S Grade skill, if you get a Mushroom Mancer talisman, the game designers likely want you to think about doing a Mushroom-eating free meal wide-range support set. If you roll a Quick Sheathe 3 talisman, then likely you should consider branching out into an LS build and give that a shot. Having flexibility in the talismans you use or are looking for is your best shot at controlling some of the volatility built into this talisman system. Of course, we are still going to farm for specific talismans, hence the tables I have provided such that you can form expectations for how long you should be farming for your desired outcome.

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Closing Thoughts:

This was more information than anyone should ever know about talismans. If you're lucky enough to hit a god-roll, then really congrats because the probabilities are absurdly low. If you're a median player, grind out your Tier 3 decoration then have fun on the ride. I made this mostly for myself but I hope someone else can benefit from the discussion and math herein. If anyone wants access to the original workbook to check my modeling or play around, DM me. If anyone sees an error in my modeling let me know – I will change the model to accommodate.

Source

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