Content of the article: "What actually makes exalts go up or down"
Most players are not aware of what forces control this economy. For example, I heard sirgog say exalts may be cheap because of those exalt shards from the league mechanic.
You cannot see it without actively flipping. This is why pathofmatts could immediately reply the reason why exalts were down is: banwave.
The reason it went up 20% rapidly in the past 12 hours is that bots are back. They are the ones who buy all the exalts making their price go up. This is all that ever happen. That is the unique force behind SC trade league exalt value. It is just a place where bots buy your exalts for chaos or chromes and sell them to your fellow players for real money.
You cannot see it if you are not flipping, but it is quite astounding when it happen. League is turning into what Diablo 2 servers have been for so very long. Much of the economy is just bot-based. They make the chromes cheap, they make the exalts expensive.
So yes, GGG had done this well this league, they got the bots out. They're back now, but that is what made the exalt decline so early. If we were just trading between human players for what we need, surely an exalt would have more similar values between HC and SC.
It did for a while this league and I guarantee you, as someone who actively flip. I see it all the time when the bots are in action. Because when I kept raising the price of my exalts since they were going up 1c in value every few minutes, I saw them dozens of times. They always place the chaos in uneven piles in the window. If you want to know if the person is a bot, that is the easiest sign to spot. The way they put things in the window make no sense. They buy your exalt for 85c, they put 7 piles of 10c then they put 8c and 7c piles… and it is not in order.
It's a bit sad that it is this way. I think GGG done well banning those bots this league. We had a very interesting market as a result where exalts suddenly went from 95c down to 75c in the first week. Almost back to day 2 value. In the past dozen hours or so, bots syphoned the market so the price is going up.
When reddit folks say they love bots, they're being stupid. They're encouraging a game where people pay real money for exalts. I don't know how to deal with this myself, it is unavoidable. You may complain about that delirium tab to fit your splinters, but this is just GGG trying to make money. It is preferable to this pestilence of RMT. Wherein, to be a good flipper, you need to rely on bots dumping on you.
While people here hate flippers, they're the ones that keep currency available in larger supply. You'd have a hard time finding someone reliably to sell you 300 scourings right now. Anyone who sell you any currency is flipping it to you. This is not making the price go up, it is a very harsh and competitive field where people try to crush each other with the slimmest of profit margins. As in, there is a guy right now I saw who have 4500 scraps. He is top price on the buy and sell sides. How easy you think it would be to buy a bunch of armorer scraps without flippers? There isn't a whole lot of people who go around pricing their scraps, especially because most do not pick them. Nobody would ever have 500 scraps for you without flippers hoarding them.
However, bots are a different factor altogether. One thing that have happened in standard for example is the NeverSink effect. People hide chromes from their filter when they play, so what happen there is simple. Chromes have went up to be more valuable than fusings or alchemy orbs. But throw in a square ton of bots who pick up chromatic items to vendor them and, there you go, SC trade value is what it is. So when they are around, chromes can be a dozen to a chaos… when they are not, then maybe it drop to 6-7 to a chaos depending how mature the economy is.
One thing GGG always say they wish to protect is the integrity of the items. If the value of everything is based on bots farming chromes and chaos recipes, then you sort of understand why people go SSF or HC or standard league and you lose that integrity of the currency market which buys those items. It's like we're all trading "duped SOJs" as the source of our economy. All those chaos wouldn't enter the economy if you didn't have massive bot farms creating them. This is why I can't understand why they're not removing the chaos recipe at this point… or make it only available from t10 maps and up to replace the regal recipe.
Amusingly, maybe the chaos recipe would be worth doing if it wasn't done by bots. When an exalt is 75c and you just want a reliable way to buy some, doing the chaos recipe is not that bad. It is when an exalt is 200c of course. But otherwise, people who understand how to make currency, such as pathofmatts, will tell you chaos recipe day 1-2 is actually good because you can buy an exalt for 50c. But then again, this is likely because within days exalts will go up in value a whole lot because bots start doing the chaos recipe.
It did not happen this way this time, exalts actually went down for a while. If you don't know, this is simply the economy adjusting to the value an exalt have without bots buying them all through chaos recipes.
- Exalt prices in Harvest (not a rant)
- Prices of valuable items in the already thin HC economy are being vastly inflated by RMT players from Perm Standard league. Perhaps its time to make HC death permanent. (Pic included)
- Results from 80 lockpicking contracts
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