Obviously they would not know it is vampiric. They probably think it is haunted, or abandoned (unless Vingalmo is a Thalmor spy, but I do not think he is, because of a book he wrote that is mentioned in this book https://en.uesp.net/wiki/Lore:Night_of_Tears_(book))) but there is no way, they wouldn't notice "mist bats" and "shadows" moving at night while on shift at Northwatch as the vampires leave their castle to go to Solitude, or go looking for more relics, or whatever the hell they do. They already got plenty of cattle, and food, and drink does not sustain them, they do not get sustenance from actual food or drink and only eat or drink for the hell of it. They have to feed on blood for sustenance though because they are vampires.
Someone made an apocrypha where Elenwen wrote a letter notifying all Thalmor justiciars in the province about the increase in attacks after the Vigilant Hall got destroyed. It has nothing to do with the Legion or Stormcloaks, but is from vampires. In the letter, Elenwen mentions the Volkihar, and warns the Justiciars to travel in pairs, avoid traveling at night, etc, and adds more guards in Northwatch, because the commander there suspects "there might be a Volkihar vampire lair nearby" because of all the shadows, and bats around the area, and the ocean ice acting a little strange, because the Volkihar can pull people under the ice, according to Immortal Blood. Do they not see the massive castle? Or is it too far away for them to see, but gameplay mechanics show it a lot closer to the coast? Perhaps, they cannot see it, because the vampires keep summoning a mist that we do not see in game that cloaks the castle, and the island. Wouldn't they suspect the big castle not too far away from their own "Off the grid" top secret prison? Northwatch keep is meant to be off the grid, and "top secret" so anything "top secret" has to be taken seriously to ensure the assets are not destroyed, or disrupted, or operations effected. Probably why they don't acknowledge the Stormcloak raid on the prison if you go with Avulstein and free Thorald, and don't publicly respond to the raid on the prison. But anyway, I'd imagine a big haunted vampiric castle off the coast would be a threat to their security. You literally cannot get to Volkihar castle unless you pass by the prison. And Rargal Thrallmaster leaves every so often to go to the mainland to get cattle. How does the Thalmor not notice this? A strange looking Nord man, transporting "prisoners in rags" pass the prison and getting on a boat to go to a strange castle?
The vampires at Dimhollow who attacked the Hall of the Vigilant were Volkihar vampires, because you can hear them speak about Harkon, and the castle when you go inside. So you mean to tell me, an entire force of vampires left the castle, and went pass Northwatch Prison, a top secret, heavily guarded Thalmor prison without the Thalmor noticing all the way to Dawnstar Pale Hold? I think if they just turned to bats, or shadows, the Thalmor would have noticed something is "off" about the "atmosphere." Or "there is a strange aura here, I keep seeing lots of bats, and shadows move."
As a side note, I think the vampires in Mara's eye pond are Volkihar as well, (because they are under icy water, read Immortal Blood) and the vampires at Bloodlet Throne may be Volkihar too, or they are Remnants of the Grey Host. Movarth Piquine is Cyrodiilic Vampyrum Order. The vampires at Haemar's Shame are also Cyrodiilic Vampyrum Order because they worship Clavicus Vile. Not sure about most of the other vampire lairs. Though, I think the Redwater Den is led by a vampire from Summerset, and is trying to create a clan in Skyrim, because Altmer blood is too thin. He uses the Redwater Skooma to get mortals addicted and they come back for more where they get captured and turned into cattle, and some get killed. We never actually see how vast the Redwater Skooma operations are though, but someone there recognizes you from Helgen. And it is in the Rift, which already has a Skooma problem, and a network of Skooma dealers.
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