Content of the article: "Starting Orange or Blue: 21500+ Ranked matches analysed"
This is based on more than 21500 Ranked matches I’ve analysed. All these matches were played in the last 45 days. I have access to this dataset as the developer of the R6 Analyst app.
This highlights the issue of how Siege divides up who starts on Attack and Defence, and how there is currently definitely something funky with that!
An analysis of 12871 Ranked matches across 282 players from all over the world, show quite definitively that there is some lopsided bias in the division of Orange and Blue teams.
A statistical analysis (binomial distribution, p-value ≤ 0.05) shows that for 43.6% of players, the division is not a purely random 50/50 chance. And a subset of players (<15%) are “stuck” with receiving either Orange (defence-first) or Blue (attack-first) on nearly all (>75%) of their matches.
For the full detailed analysis, check out the in-depth article.
The fix didn’t fix it?
Almost exactly a year ago, there was a ‘public outcry’ from a subsection of Siege-players, that their matchmaking appeared strangely lopsided. They were getting either significantly more Defence-first (Orange team) or Attack-first (Blue team) in their games. This appeared to be well outside the realm of random chance.
High-profile people in the Siege community, like Pengu and /u/AnneMunition noticed this too, and boosted the issue’s visibility.
Ubisoft responded and in the Y4S3.2 patch, a purported ‘fix’ was implemented. It was documented as:
FIXED – Fixed an issue with Attacker side logic bias during lobby creation. Attacker and Defender side assignment is now completely random.
Afterwards, there were still some reports that the issue didn’t seem completely resolved. AnneMunition tweeted she noticed this as well.
However, the issue seemed mostly resolved, and things went back to normal.
EDIT: Just last week, VarsityGaming also noted a lopsided division of starting teams, though his sample size was very small.
Last year, the rumours flying around were that it had to do with your Ping in-game. Alternate explanations had to do with how many you were stacking with, when entering matchmaking.
I contacted some of the other players that were getting extremely significantly biased matchmaking (>75% going one way or the other), to ask their usual ping and matchmaking.
Three players responded, they get Orange in almost all matches. They all have a ping of 9ms. However, one says he almost always plays solo-queue, whilst the other two mainly queue in 4- or 5-stacks. They all get Orange in ±80% of their Ranked matches. As an example, one of the three players played 168 matches last month, and in 134 of them they were on the Orange team.
I was also able to determine that three of the players that are assigned Blue team a statistically significant amount of times, are located in countries that are commonly associated with having a higher-than-average ping.
Unfortunately, this is far from conclusive, but does give food for thought.
I think it’s fair to say that there is definitely still something funky going on with how matchmaking works, and how the Orange and Blue teams are divided. What exactly the cause is, is not (yet) clear.
I think it’s up to Ubisoft to look into and verify these findings, and then to acknowledge it’s a known issue and work towards finding a more robust fix than that which was applied in the Y4S3.2 patch.
Thanks for reading! Stay tuned for some more tidbits of information that I’m pulling from the dataset. Or if you have any burning questions you think the dataset might be able to help answer, feel free to ask them below!
What are your experiences with a lopsided starting team?
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- Let me tell you, why you really hate stacks!
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© Post "Starting Orange or Blue: 21500+ Ranked matches analysed" for game Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege.
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