Content of the article: "【Datamined/Spoiler Warning】Full speculation on Season 3 and Season 4 story with TD2 Year 3 Prediction"
Hi all, if anyone still remember the previous datamined post (https://www.reddit.com/r/thedivision/comments/gpmlkm/waring_major_spoiler_alert_future_of_the_seasonal/) I talked about S3, S4 and The Summit 4 months ago, yeah I'm back, and this time I'm going to have my full speculation on S3 and S4. During TU11 PTS Massive finished and put in all manhunt and manhunt mission audios (including collectibles and mission conversations). After listening all of them, I'm going to sum up the future stories, and put in some of my speculations to finish the big picture. Then I'm going to guess what's coming after S4 ends in 2021. If you haven't read my last post but you want to continue reading this post, I highly recommend you check out my last post. Now without further ado, sit tight agents, we're in for a ride, a ride with shady organization behind the curtain and their mysterious and fearsome warriors.
Oh and of course, don't read any further if you don't care about TD2's story or you want to avoid spoilers, this is your last warning.
So, where do we begin. Alright, let's start with our manhunt rogue agents. By now you guys should at least know who they are, or know their faces. Marley Yarrow the Rikers Agent, callsign Shade; Sueko Tanagi the Hyena Agent, callsign Wraith; Linette Edwards the True Sons Agent, callsign Dusk and Skyler Williams the Crazy Mofo Outcasts Agent, callsign Belfry. They all had different agendas when they gone rogue, but Faye found a way to contact and recruited them for Bar to disrupt SHD and JTF operations to give Black Tusk the upper hand over the Division. Before we get to the real business, I'm going to sum up their bio so you can have a basic understanding of why they've gone rogue.
Yarrow went rogue because she was a parole officer before recruited by SHD, and she saw the inmates in Rikers Island were mistreated, and just like Dragov she felt empathy for those inmates and went rogue, proceeded working with Dragov. She was close with Faye before went rogue and Faye led her to Black Tusk after Dragov's demise.
Now for Tanagi, she's in a different league. She was running logistics in US Army, after that she worked in a international shipping company as logistics officer, and recruited by SHD in the process. Activated when global economy collapsed, tasked to assist CERA with supply lines. Then she was contacted by Black Tusk. Yep, she's been working with Black Tusk for a while, not a recent recruit, she took the golden opportunity so she gets to keep two big competitors' supplies in her grasp, US government and the company supplies Black Tusk behind the curtain. And due to her connection with the Hyenas, it's pretty safe to say the gears and weapons Hyenas got were definitely passed through her hands, and that's the reason why she got Hyenas to back her up. Also her voice is super annoying, I'm glad she ended dead on my hands.
Ms.Edwards, she was born in a military family, third-generation USMC, with the recommendation from her father, SHD recruited her as an agent. After activated in DC, she came to the conclusion that the Division is corrupted, and the True Sons are the way to go, so she instantly flipped side. Later contacted by Bardon, and agreed to work with him and the Black Tusk.
And lastly, Williams (what's up with the Williams in this game, Major Williams from Iron Horse was a crazy ass Mofo as well) the crazy Mofo decided to side with the Outcasts. He was born and grew up in Maryland, enlisted and recruited by SHD. Before activation he was a police officer, after activation he was stationed in the CERA camp inside DZ South, and he saw how DC-62 destroyed people's life, broke families and went rogue after all the tragedies he had witnessed. Eventually got contacted by the Black Tusk and decided to work with them.
Now we're done with those rogues, time to talk about Bar and Nat (Natalya Sokolova). Right now we have an audio communication between her and Bar during the Shade's manhunt, Nat told Bar to "fix the problem". Her identity will be revealed in S4, but I'm going to spoil a bit here. She's the (or one of the founders) founder of Black Tusk, she founded Black Tusk six years ago. There's little bit more but I'm saving them for S4 part, so that's it for now. So about the audio comm, Bar said he's not sure about "this op" which is pretty vague, but I can assume the op he's referring to is recruiting rogues and using them to disrupt SHD operations. Nat says this op is the chance for Faye to prove her and her agents' worthiness, but Bar thinks those agents are a liability, so Nat tells Bar if they are the problem, fix it, she doesn't tolerate failure. Now let's keep this communication in mind, cus we're going to explain it with other details during my S3 story speculation part, before that let's get to Bar's manhunt mission first. Coney Island Amusement Park Manhunt. So the background for this mission is Bar's four rogue agents are out of service, and he needs to meet with Faye to talk about the future plans, so he chose this location since it's "somewhere remote and secure". But SHD manages to spot him with scout drone, so Kelso sends us to take Black Tusk's top dog down for good. And here's where the fun begin.
By now most of you should notice something weird during the manhunt bounties, a mysterious Hunter showed up and he's murdering Rikers and Hyenas left and right before he vanishes in the mist before our eyes. He's equipped with Firestarter Chem Launcher, and…… a Shrapnel Trap? Yep, this is the Hunter I mentioned in my previous post. First let me recap what I said 4 months ago, at that moment I thought he will show up only in Wraith, Dusk and Belfry's manhunt, because Kelso only comments his presence after their manhunt, not in Shade's. But when season 3 drops, we found out he's inside Shade's manhunt as well. So he's active since start of the season, and Shrapnel Trap confirms he's the only Hunter showing up during S3. During Coney Island manhunt, Kelso confirms the Hunter is the one from our previous encounters when she spots him, and we found a Hunter's Shrapnel trap during the mission, it's pretty clear he created this little gimmick for him. So yeah, for those agents who managed to kill him for the Ridgeway's Pride project, kudos to you but he won't actually die until we get to Coney Island.
Alright let's continue, during the manhunt mission, we get to know who the Hunter really works for. It turns out the Hunter is under Bar's command, and it seems Natalya gave (or ordered the Hunter to work for Bar) the Hunter to Bar. So why the Hunter attacked those rogue agents? Alright guys, it's speculation time, get ready for some crazy talking, cus it'll be wild. And before we get into this, the speculation will have some info from S4, if you are confused I again recommend you check out my previous post. Now guys, let's get started.
S3 Story Speculation
So first, we know in S4 Faye's true agenda is killing Ellis (she had her reason, a logical one, the ultimate sacrifice), and she's been faking the entire time so she can get close to him and carry out the hit, truly a knife to the heart. So what's up with the Hunter attacking Bar's rogue agents? My guess is this is Bar's "fix" for the problematic rogue recruits, he ordered the Hunter to hunt down and kill those rogue agents. Why? Throughout the manhunt we will collect the comms relate to those agents, and we can actually see they aren't sharing the same big picture as Bar does. When Shade received the care package from Bar, she said she'll cause mayhem and destabilize the status quo, and Bar said that's not his goal, when Bar said he wants to be on the right side, you can hear the mocking laughs from Shade. And for Wraith, she treated Bar like a errand boy for supplies, in her comms you can see she's pushing Bar's limits as far as she can. And Belfry, well what do you expect from someone chose the Outcasts. They are "terrorists dabbed in biological warfare". However Dusk is quite the stable one among them, since she had a strong military background, and True Sons are somewhat better than Rikers, Hyenas and Outcasts, but we know they are just lowkey Black Tusks who wants control over US as well, so in the end all four rogue agents aren't the best candidates for Bar, and Faye recommended them to Bar. In later comms Bar asks how well does she actually know about these rogues, are they going to put all of their resources on those agents? I think Bar might actually be on to her, he's suspecting her loyalty to the Black Tusk. The meeting he held in Coney Island was just a death trap for Faye to step in, if she doesn't tread lightly, she might get killed. Because on Coney Island, not only Bar and his Hunter are there, but also a group of four Elite BTSU Operatives as his reinforcement, I'd say this is more than just excessive precaution, he himself is a badass spec ops operator, let alone the position of BTSU leader. Why would he needs four BTSU operatives if he thinks this meeting place is "remote and secure"? (Well, the Rikers are on the Island, but they are there to enjoy their lives, not harming anyone, too bad the Hunter slaughtered them like animals, the dying screams from those poor bastards are really some nightmare fuels). With a Hunter, four BTSU Operatives and himself, I don't think this is a meeting for Faye, this is where she dies if she makes any mistake. But he didn't get Faye to the meeting, instead of Faye, we crashed the party, killed the Hunter and his four Operatives, then dealt with him. To sum it all up, in my speculation, in S3 Bar basically sets four rogue agents up and kill them for damage control. Sometime after he got introduced to them by Faye, he realized how unstable and dangerous they were, and talked to Natalya about this whole thing, gets the green light on house cleaning with a Hunter to assist him, because that won't raise any suspicions, since no one knows the Hunter is with the Black Tusk. He then tries to gain the trust from those rogues, and hunt them down with the Hunter. In the audio comms, Dusk and Shade tried to meet with him, this would be Bar's way of gaining their location then hunting them down with the Hunter. Wraith and Belfry however didn't get a meet, but with supply drops they are getting, it's safe to say Bar can track and hunt them down as well. Belfry doesn't even get supplies until he talked to the rest three rogue agents, that could possibly mean Bar just waiting for him to get killed, or Bar's busy at killing other rogue agents, only to find out Belfry is still alive, and lure him to the Hunter. But during all those bounties, we show up and do the job before the Hunter can do so. Something worth mentioning is Kelso's comments on the Hunter aren't playing in the game, but they do exist in the files, I don't know why she never says them though, and after Belfry's bounty, she'll say the Hunter seems going after Belfry, this reinforce the idea of Bar is cleaning up the mess Faye created for him. Also canonically we (the Sheriff and Kelso) don't know about these shenanigans, we have zero idea what is happening during S3, that's why S3 is called Concealed Agenda. During the manhunt mission, Kelso originally thought the Hunter is after Bar just like Belfry, but we eventually find out he's with Bar, and a mysterious woman called Natalya Sokolova is acting as Bar's superior. Anyway in the end Bar got himself out of the equation, and Faye gets to complete her grand scheme in S4 which we're going to talk about next.
Now before we get to S4, there's something minor in S3 I want to talk about. Remember I said four BTSU in Coney Island Manhunt? Yeah, that makes Coney Island Manhunt the mission with the most boss in the game, the Hunter + 4 BTSU and Bar himself, that's 6 boss in total, if you don't count the secret boss in Manning National Zoo, then Coney Island will be the mission with the most boss, and since Coney Island Amusement Park is a pretty fast pace mission, that makes the manhunt version a really good farming mission, so there's that. And one other thing is, the Hunter finally "speaks" during the mission, he doesn't actually speak any words, but he roars and groans, when he got fatally wounded he will scream, the sound of that however is pretty messed up as well, which makes me wonder what are they behind that mask, they are quite inhuman to me, are they really human any more? Are they the Winter Soldiers of the Sokolov Family? Last but not least, do you all still remember the one-time comms we were receiving during S1 and S2? When we were leveling up, we can heard four different transmissions, in S1 was Jupiter's communications with her cell, and in S2 was Hornet and Keener's final discussion before Hornet headed to DC to fulfill Keener's Legacy. But this one-time comm is missing in S3, and this is not a glitch like Kelso's comments on the Hunter's presence during Manhunt Bounties not playing, S3 one-time leveling comms are not existing in the files. This reinforces the idea of Bar is cleaning house, even though these rogue agents are his cell, but he doesn't give them orders to operate, guess he's too busy with tying up the loose ends.
Alright, you know the drill, let's start with four rogue agents' identity first. They may seem regular rogue agents to you, but two of them are more than you can imagine. First up, Bridges Douglas, callgisn Viper, aka Charles Douglas' daughter; Felix Sokolov, callsign Kestrel (which is the same with the Black Tusk Strike Team in the Invaded GWH, just a coincidence I guess), the only son of Alexei Sokolov. Magnus, real name Dustin Xavier and our old friend since WONY, Alica Coswald, now called Circe. They form the rogue cell in S4, under Faye Lau's command. She resurfaced with her cell with unknown objectives, but not just to us, same to Black Tusk and her cell as well. But before I share her true intentions, let's know more about those rogue agents shall we?
Viper, also known as Bridges Douglas. Does that last name seem familiar to you? Yep, she's the daughter of Charles Douglas, the in game brand D&H's co-founder. Ms. Bridges grew up in a peace and quiet manor in Scotland, served in the SAS for eight years after graduating from university, then worked in D&H as a logistic officer. When Green Poison popped out in NYC, she was contacted and recruited by the Black Tusk, although Charles tried to persuade her otherwise, but she didn't listen. So there's something weird here right? Nothing and no one says she's a SHD agent. That's right, her agent status was never activated. She was indeed a recruited SHD agent, but she was never activated, she was contacted and recruited by Black Tusk before her activation, and she never brought this up before， not until Faye asks her about this when Faye meets her.
Here comes the most juicy part, Felix "Kestrel" Sokolov, the only son of the Russian Businessman Alexei Sokolov. Alexei was probably the CEO or something like that in Sokolov Concern, this is Sokolov's family business. Alexei moved to the United States with Felix and his American wife, and left Natalya Sokolova the big sister in Russia to take care the family business. In US, Alexei forced Felix to enlist in the US Navy, during Felix's service Alexei passed away, and Felix's American mother was accused for the murder. During this hard time, Natalya moved from Russia to US to take care of the mess and her little brother although they had different mothers, this was six years ago (in game time), the same time when Nat started Black Tusk. After his service, Nat helped Felix to study Medicine in John Hopkins. He recruited by SHD sometime during his study (probably) with some family connections, and activated when Green Poison started to spread. When he was in danger, Nat dispatched Black Tusk to save and retrieve him, after that Felix works with his big sis and the Black Tusk.
Dustin Xavier, aka Magnus, recruited by SHD after his second tour in Afghanistan, also received the Medal of Honor because of his courageous actions when his unit was ambushed with IED. After activating in DC, he started to question his mission, he discovered the resources and gears distributed to SHD agents were enough for them to face the crisis. Later he got contacted by Bardon, Dustin found his ideology aligned with Bar's and decided to join the Black Tusk.
Alica Coswald, chooses "Circe" as the callsign to forget the old life she used to live. Recruited by SHD when she started her study in university at 23 thanks to G.I. Bill after she finished her service. Got herself a first job of teaching English in a high school after her recent graduation just before the Green Poison outbreak. She turned to Black Tusk when she realized the hopeless situation was beyond her power, rumor has it she turned Faye to rogue when Faye was interrogating her.
Now we know about them, it's time to talk about the S4 manhunt mission, Camp White Oak Manhunt: Faye Lau. After we take care of four sub-targets, we learn that Faye is meeting Ellis at Camp White Oak (serious, how on earth would Ellis pick this location again, he almost got caught last time and if it wasn't for my man Galveston he'd already in prison). Kelso dispatches us to crash the party, while Ellis is still POTUS, we're not authorized to take him down whatsoever, on the other hand neutralizing Faye is cleared for us. Upon arriving Camp White Oak, Faye just landed as well and is on her way to meet Ellis, Ellis is sitting in the Wooden Cabin (with two big slide door with glasses) waiting for her with his bodyguard named Wilson. While we fight our way to the Wooden Cabin, Faye meets Ellis, when we reach the outer parameter of the Wooden Cabin, Wilson orders Faye to protect Ellis and leaves the Cabin to fight us, and after we taking care of him, the real game begins, the following event will change the storytelling for either Y3 of TD2, or a distant TD3.
Before we enter the room, Faye says "It's over, Ellis is dead, you don't have to do this, you can let me go." and we rush in the room, find a body is lying on the ground, upon scanning ISAC confirms it's the current POTUS Andrew Ellis, life sign zero, status: deceased. Kelso thinks Faye "fucking lost it” and we have to neutralize her. Then Faye patches into Camp White Oak's broadcast system and uses the megaphone speakers to frame us for killing the president, and she's on her way to bail out via the chopper she landed in the Holly Lodge. Finally we catch up with her and the final showdown begins. Her chopper ran into some kind of electrical issue preventing it from warming up and taking off. Faye has to buy her and the chopper crew some time so she jumps in and fight with us. According to the audio we have to "recause" the issue couple times to prevent the chopper from starting up, or Faye will get away. During her fight, she explains she did the hard choice, what had to be done, what she, and we needed to do, She maintained our mission. But the ending of this mission is quite ambiguous, there's no ISAC confirming "Rogue Agent deceased" line, or "Target neutralized", and from Kelso's mission end audio we can't really confirm we either killed her off, or she got away. My current guess is they are making a separate cutscene for the end of this mission, but this still doesn't explain why they already recorded and put in every single other lines in the files but missed this. Maybe it's intentional to prevent dataminer from getting that information. Also we do not get any ISAC line saying "Rogue SHD skill acquired", but we do get a confirmation from Massive saying we will have a new skill in S4, and at the start of the mission Kelso says Paul and Coop cooked up something special for us, my guess is we'll get that last skill at the beginning of the mission, our two Quartermasters make us a new toy. Now with the mission outta the way, it's story speculating time.
S4 Story Speculation
During S4 we (means Kelso, Sheriff and other SHD Agents) don't know what Faye is up to, we just know she resurfaced with her team, and there has to be a plan, so we need to stop them before they execute their plan. But in fact, Faye's team doesn't know the plan as well, Felix even speculated Faye is here to take Kelso. Bridges got tasked with preparing chemicals, Felix was ordered to escort an VIP and Magnus was planning a infiltrate and exfil route for the team, but none of them knows who's the target and what are they doing in DC. While Alica was asked to gather info on Chickenhawk, but other three doesn't actually know that, and Alica never told them, it's pretty safe to assume Faye's really plan here is getting some big shot rogue agents recruited by Black Tusk and take them to DC for us to take care of, and faking her actions to make Nat think she's indeed working for them after Bar's tragic death at the Coney Island, she even picked Felix, her little brother for her operation. But some time after they landed in DC, Ellis called Faye to meet him (because Faye actually wanted to meet him, and they had a phone call, with Ellis saying he can arrange their meeting), so she ordered her team to stand down, and this gave us the opportunity to take out four sub-targets, and gaining the info on Faye so we can crash the meeting. But here comes the major problem, why she went rogue, and why she wanted to kill Ellis as this is the grand scheme she prepared so long for. Agents, it's time we listen to her confession to Roy and Paul.
There are two audio comms contains only Faye's confession, one is to Roy Benitez and another one is to Paul Rhodes. In her confession we finally understand she's indeed a patriot, and she was never against us, going rogue was her plan to infiltrate Black Tusk, and that was the first step for her to complete her grand scheme. In the confession to Roy, she said we were losing. We lost the trust from the people we were supposed to protect, and without their trust, we have nothing, it doesn't matter how many good or bad things we do, people won't believe we will get the job done, and with Bar and Ellis, we lost the legitimacy, we lost the ability to say we're still on mission, only ISAC still thinks we are on mission. If she wanted to fix this mess up, she needed an access, and the only way was to join them. She's truly sorry for breaking Roy's trust like that, she couldn't tell Roy about her plan, or Roy would stop her and she wouldn't go rogue and join the Black Tusk and eventually kill Ellis. In her confession to Paul, she understands her conflict with him, she understand why they can't be friends, because they were too similar, they both lost loved one, and both were guarded people. She hoped Paul would understand her, maybe not agree with her plan, but at least he would understand why she gone through this. She's not sorry for the situations went down like that, but she's sorry for not telling him her plan.
Now we know Faye's true intention behind the curtain, she's still a good agent. Just like the trailer for WONY says "her methods aren't conventional, but we're in a race against the clock, and Lau knows what it takes to get results quickly." She truly takes her training and her loyalty to the end, and she enforces the motto of the Division to her heart, "Extremis Malis, Extrema Remedia", Extreme Evil, Extreme Remedy, or Desperate times call for desperate measures. Her actions were indeed desperate, one misstep could lead her to her demise, with her friends still thinking she's a traitor, but the time for us was too short as well, we need to act fast to counter Black Tusk, she did the ultimate sacrifice, like the phoenix, she burns to make sure the rest of us will reborn, and take back this country from all evil doer, domestic and aboard. No matter you live or die in the end, I salute to you Agent Faye Lau.
Before we get to Y3 or TD3 speculation, there're also something minor we need to talk about in S4. Some of Ellis' lines are reused lines from either audio comms, or cutscene lines. I don't know why, maybe they couldn't get his voice actor to do more lines, but he did record some lines for Camp White Oak Manhunt, so I'm not sure what's going on. Another thing is, do you remember that glitched ECHO? The one about Faye meets Ellis for the first and only time. Yeah this ECHO belongs to the manhunt mission, when you enter the Wooden Cabin, this ECHO will tell you how Faye killed Ellis. She stands on the balcony, points the gun at Ellis' head and pull the trigger. Glass shattered and Ellis got a headshot, Faye says "Meeting adjourned, Mr. President." Then to herself "It's done". Oh and about the S4 skill, there's still no clue what could it be, I guess there'll still be some secrets to be unveiled when we reach S4.
Y3 of TD2, or TD3?
Now with S3 and S4 concluded. What's next? My personal speculation is, we will get a new story direction. With Ellis outta the way, the Division's chain of command is in disarray right now, because the one on the very top is dead, but we had a rouge commander so he needed to go. I think next up we'll need to continue the line of succession, and find who's the next one to take the seat in the Oval Office, and make sure he's on our side. Then we'll have to deal with Black Tusk, and possibly the real evil behind the curtain, the shadow organization lurking in the dark and trying to take over US. Don't forget, Green Poison and the follow up apocalypse wasn't one bio-terrorist's action, and the Hunters finally have some kind of lore now, so maybe in 2021, we'll have another expansion like WONY, but maybe much bigger since we'll have to travel around the country, we got to get rid of Black Tusk, we probably need to assault their main bases as well, think of the possibilities for more Raids and Strongholds, we could even ditch JTF, and team up with actual soldiers, like US Army, Air Force and Navy to assault Black Tusk from land, air and sea. However if this is the case, we don't need another level cap raising, just give us new story and contents, don't let us grind all those hard earn gears AGAIN. But come to think of it, this kind of update would be too huge, they might decide to maintain TD2, and develop TD3 for a year or two, and release the new story and content in the next title. I guess we'll know when we cross that bridge, see y'all next time.
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